Nigeria’s military has confirmed that several officers will face court-martial over an alleged conspiracy to overthrow the government of President Bola Tinubu, in a development that has thrust the stability of Africa’s most populous democracy into sharp focus.

The Armed Forces of Nigeria (AFN) made the announcement on Monday through Defence Headquarters spokesman Major General Samaila Uba, acknowledging a plot that had long been suspected but officially denied. “The findings have identified several officers with allegations of plotting to overthrow the government,” Uba said. “Those with cases to answer will be formally arraigned before an appropriate military judicial panel.”

The revelation follows months of official obfuscation. Last October, the military announced the arrest of 16 officers, attributing the detentions to “issues of indiscipline” and “perceived career stagnation.” Multiple sources within the government, however, told news agencies that the arrests were connected to a foiled coup attempt, a claim now confirmed by the military.

Details including the exact number of officers facing trial and the date of proceedings have yet to be disclosed. If convicted, the accused officers face severe penalties, including the death sentence, according to Nigerian legal experts. Analysts say the plot, had it succeeded, would have abruptly ended 25 years of uninterrupted civilian rule in Nigeria.

The disclosure also triggered immediate changes at the highest levels of the military. Following initial denials of a coup plot, President Tinubu reshuffled top military command, a move one senior government official directly linked to the conspiracy. “Normally, when such a thing happens, it means there is a gap in intelligence. No leader would accept that,” the official said. The alleged conspiracy comes amid mounting pressures on Nigeria’s armed forces.

The military continues to confront multiple security challenges across the country, including a 14-year insurgency by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the northeast, rampant kidnap-for-ransom gangs, known locally as bandits, in the northwest and rising separatist agitation in the southeast.

Military analysts have warned that poor conditions, unpaid wages, and low morale could contribute to indiscipline within the ranks, heightening the risk of unrest. The coup revelation coincided with a diplomatic spat with the United States over religious violence, briefly overshadowing the domestic security scandal.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has issued a dramatic foreign policy statement declaring his country prepared for both war and “fair and equitable negotiations” with the United States — even as no concrete plans for talks currently exist and the risk of military confrontation looms large.

Speaking alongside Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Istanbul, Araghchi sought to balance a hardened defensive posture with a conditional diplomatic overture aimed at de‑escalating mounting tensions between Tehran and Washington. “Iran is ready for fair and equitable negotiations,” the foreign minister said, stressing that any dialogue must be carefully arranged in terms of format, location and agenda.

But he was quick to add that “we have no plans to meet with the Americans” at this time. The Iranian diplomat coupled his invitation to negotiations with a stark warning, stating that “just as Iran is ready for negotiations, it is also ready for war”.

The remarks come amid a period of dangerously escalated rhetoric and military movements: U.S. pressure and threats — The United States has publicly warned of possible military action if Iran violently suppresses protesters and continues activities Washington deems destabilising.

This has included deploying naval forces to the Middle East and levying fresh sanctions. Internal unrest in Iran — Recent nationwide protests against economic hardship and political repression prompted a harsh government crackdown, drawing international condemnation and further straining Tehran–Washington ties. Regional confrontations — Persistent tensions between Iranian‑aligned groups and U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, together with disputes over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, have fuelled fears of a broader conflagration.

The choice of Istanbul — a NATO member with working relations with both the U.S. and Iran — as the venue for Araghchi’s message was widely viewed by analysts as deliberate. It allows Tehran to communicate its diplomatic stance through a neutral intermediary, while avoiding direct contact with American officials.

Turkey has since offered to play a facilitation role, advocating diplomacy as the best avenue to reduce tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have signalled openness to diplomacy under certain conditions, but maintain they will protect American interests and personnel in the region.

Niger’s military ruler, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has made explosive allegations against the presidents of France, Benin, and Ivory Coast, claiming they supported armed groups behind a major attack on the country’s capital air base. The claims came as the Islamic State (IS) group officially claimed responsibility for the assault.

The early morning attack targeted an Air Force base at Niamey’s Diori Hamani International Airport, leaving four soldiers wounded and causing damage to at least one military aircraft. Nigerien state television reported that security forces responded swiftly, killing 20 attackers and arresting 11 others.

In a fiery televised address, General Tchiani named the foreign leaders he accused of sponsoring the attack. “We remind the sponsors of those mercenaries, who are Emmanuel Macron (president of France), Patrice Talon (president of Benin) and Alassane Ouattara (president of Ivory Coast),” he said. “We have sufficiently heard them bark, and they should now in turn be prepared to hear us roar.”

Tchiani did not provide evidence to substantiate the claims, and representatives for France, Benin, and Ivory Coast were yet to comment on the accusations. On Friday, the IS group, through its Amaq News Agency, claimed responsibility for the operation, describing it as “a surprise and coordinated attack” that inflicted significant losses. Security analysts have described the assault as unusually bold.

“The sophistication, including the possible use of drones, suggests that the assailants may have had inside help,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation. He added that a series of earlier attacks across the Sahel may have emboldened militant groups to target more strategic sites.

The accusations by Niger’s junta echo similar rhetoric from neighbouring military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso. Since taking power in a July 2023 coup, the junta has severed longstanding security ties with France and other Western nations, established new military partnerships with Russia and repeatedly accused countries maintaining ties with France, such as Benin and Ivory Coast, of acting as proxies for Paris.

Experts warn that despite strong anti-militant rhetoric, the Sahel region has seen a rise in jihadist attacks since the military takeovers, leaving civilian populations increasingly vulnerable.