Dollar Rebounds as Traders Eye Possible Fed Rate Cut in September

The U.S. dollar staged a rebound on Monday, gaining ground against major currencies after suffering sharp losses last week on the back of dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which had strengthened expectations of an interest rate cut in September.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.49 per cent to 98.32, marking its biggest daily advance since July 30.

The euro slipped 0.69 per cent to $1.1634, retreating from Friday’s four-week high of $1.1742.

The rebound comes as global markets weigh Powell’s remarks that risks to the U.S. labour market are rising, even though inflation remains a concern.

Analysts at Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank now project a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting.

“While Powell and company are undoubtedly still leaning toward cutting interest rates next month, upcoming U.S. economic data could sway the decision,” said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX.

“Forex traders are hedging their bets as a September cut isn’t guaranteed, and the dollar’s modest recovery reflects that caution.”

Market pricing showed an 84.3 per cent probability of a September rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool — a slight dip from 84.7 per cent in the prior session but well above the 61.9 per cent recorded a month ago.

Meanwhile, U.S. stocks closed weaker on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 0.75 per cent, the S&P 500 falling by 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping by 0.2 per cent.

Treasury yields also edged higher, with the two-year note, which is highly sensitive to Fed expectations, up four basis points at 3.728 per cent.

Across the Atlantic, euro zone bond yields climbed as traders recalibrated their outlook, aided by data showing a pickup in German business confidence.

Germany’s 10-year yield rose 3.9 basis points to 2.758 per cent, close to a five-month peak of 2.787 per cent.

Despite Monday’s recovery, the dollar remains under pressure, having weakened by more than nine per cent so far this year, while the euro has gained over 12 per cent.

Analysts such as Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, predict the euro could strengthen further to $1.20–$1.22 within the next year.

Investor attention is also fixed on escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve, with Trump’s repeated criticism of Powell and other Fed officials raising fresh concerns about the central bank’s independence at a sensitive time for monetary policy.

Dangote Inches Closer to Historic $30bn Net Worth Mark

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is edging closer to the historic $30 billion milestone, with Bloomberg’s real-time Billionaires Index currently valuing his net worth at $29.3 billion.

The development follows a year-to-date rise of almost $1.2 billion, fuelling fresh speculation that the Nigerian industrialist may soon become the continent’s first-ever $30 billion man.

The surge is particularly significant given a volatile year that has seen wide swings in the valuation of Dangote’s fortune.

At the start of 2025, the billionaire’s wealth was pegged at $28.1 billion, before dipping to $27.7 billion by mid-year.

In April, Bloomberg reported a modest year-to-date gain of just $153 million, confirming the sensitivity of these figures to shifts in market prices, currency movements, and company results.

Dangote’s fortune is anchored in his publicly listed companies—Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar, and NASCON—which collectively account for the bulk of his visible assets.

According to market trackers, Dangote Cement is valued at $5.54 billion, Dangote Sugar at $357 million, United Bank for Africa (UBA) shares at $484,000, and NASCON at $117 million.

The billionaire’s year-to-date gain has been credited to strong share price movements on the Nigerian Exchange, buoyed by improved company results and better macroeconomic indicators in the Nigerian economy.

Beyond the listed firms, investors continue to pin heightened expectations on the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery, an integrated refinery and petrochemical complex in Lekki.

Although unlisted—and therefore assessed through simulated valuations—the refinery is widely regarded as the most transformative asset in Dangote’s portfolio, with analysts consistently citing its future export potential and cash flow prospects as major drivers of his rising fortune.

Market watchers say the difference between Dangote’s current wealth and the symbolic $30 billion mark is just about $700 million.

Given recent surges that have added hundreds of millions in value within days, some analysts argue that the milestone could be reached within weeks if market momentum continues or if a favourable re-rating of his refinery assets occurs.

For now, the big question remains: is the $30 billion threshold imminent, or merely headline hype? What is certain, however, is that Dangote’s business empire—spanning cement, sugar, salt, and petroleum—remains the single most significant wealth story out of Africa.

NNPC Exits Buhari-Era Road Tax Credit Scheme After N1.4trn Contribution

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has formally withdrawn from the Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme (RITCS), a flagship initiative introduced by the late former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, after committing a combined $577.6 million and N822.3 billion to the programme over a 16-month period.

Data from the Federation Account Allocation Committee’s (FAAC) Post-Mortem Sub-Committee report for July 2025, covering February 2024 to May 2025, revealed that the state-owned oil company’s exit will leave a N3 trillion funding gap for road projects approved under the scheme.

The RITCS, launched through Executive Order 007, allowed private sector investors to fund the construction or rehabilitation of critical federal roads in exchange for tax credits equivalent to their investment.

NNPC emerged as one of the scheme’s biggest backers, financing some of the country’s most strategic road projects.

The withdrawal aligns with NNPC’s transformation into a fully commercial entity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and its new operational focus on profitability, efficiency, and core upstream business, cutting down on quasi-fiscal obligations.

According to the FAAC report, NNPC’s last dollar-denominated payment—$52.5 million—was made in December 2024, bringing total foreign currency contributions to $577.6 million.

From January 2025, deductions were made in naira, with N151.27 billion remitted in January and N671.04 billion in April, totalling N822.3 billion for the year.

The Post-Mortem Sub-Committee noted that these figures exclude payments before 2024, suggesting NNPC’s total historical contributions are significantly higher.

Funds were deducted monthly from the company’s Companies Income Tax obligations—through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS)—and channelled into approved road projects.

Under Phase I, approved in late 2021, NNPC committed N621.24 billion to reconstruct 21 key roads totalling 1,804.6km across the six geopolitical zones.

These included the Ilorin–Jebba–Mokwa/Bokani Junction Road in Kwara and Niger states, the Suleja–Minna Road, the Bida–Lambata Road, the Lagos–Badagry Expressway, and sections of the Mokwa–Makera–Tegina corridor.

Phase II, approved in January 2023, expanded the scope to 44 federal roads covering 4,554km at a projected cost of N1.9 trillion.

Prominent projects included the East-West Road from Warri to Eket, the Port Harcourt–Onne Junction upgrade, the Nembe–Brass Road in Bayelsa State, and rehabilitation works on key North-east corridors such as Yola–Mubi–Maiduguri and Bali–Serti–Gembu in Taraba State.

Despite NNPC’s heavy investment, the scheme faced criticisms over transparency in project selection, cost benchmarking, and its strain on government revenues amid mounting debt service obligations and forex pressures.

Minister of Works, David Umahi, disclosed last week that President Bola Tinubu had directed the ministry to explore alternative funding models for incomplete projects.

He confirmed that the government needs about N3 trillion to finish the affected roads and that a list is being compiled for possible Public-Private Partnership (PPP) execution.

With NNPC’s exit, funding responsibility for the ambitious road projects now shifts squarely to the federal government and potential private investors.