Business
IEA Warns of Record Oil Glut in 2026 as Supply Outpaces Demand Growth
IEA Warns of Record Oil Glut in 2026 as Supply Outpaces Demand Growth
Global oil markets are headed for a record supply surplus next year, with production growth far outstripping demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based body projected that oil inventories could grow by 2.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 — a buildup even higher than the average surplus recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020.
The IEA said world oil demand growth this year and next will slow to less than half the pace seen in 2023, weighed down by weaker consumption in major markets like China, India and Brazil.
Global consumption is forecast to expand by only 680,000 bpd in 2025 — the slowest since 2019 — before inching up by 700,000 bpd in 2026.
Meanwhile, supplies are surging. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, has accelerated the restart of previously halted production, while output outside the group — particularly from the U.S., Guyana, Canada and Brazil — is also rising.
The agency revised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 upward by 100,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.
“Oil-market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026,” the IEA stated.
“It is clear that something will have to give for the market to balance.”
Crude prices have already slipped about 12% this year, trading near $66 per barrel in London, amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war could dampen global economic growth.
While the price drop offers relief to consumers and a political win for Trump’s push for lower fuel costs, it poses significant financial challenges for oil-producing nations and companies.
Oil markets are currently drawing some support from strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the IEA noted that inventories — which hit a 46-month high in June — suggest oversupply pressures are already in play.
It added that new geopolitical shocks, such as sanctions on Russia or Iran, could still reshape the outlook.
The projected glut would be the largest annual surplus on record, although the second quarter of 2020 — when lockdowns slashed demand by over 7 million bpd — remains the biggest quarterly excess in history.
Business
Gold Rush Chaos Rocks Northwestern Zambia
Gold Rush Chaos Rocks Northwestern Zambia
A sudden gold rush in northwestern Zambia has degenerated into violence as thousands of fortune seekers stormed the region following viral social media claims that the precious metal could be easily found beneath the surface.
The unverified reports, which spread rapidly earlier this year, triggered a massive influx of people from different parts of Zambia and neighbouring countries, overwhelming local communities and sparking tension with security forces.
According to reports, hundreds of police officers deployed to the area to curb illegal mining activities were confronted by hostile miners.
Some officers were also accused of collecting bribes from the illegal operators, further fuelling public outrage and mistrust.
In a swift move to restore order, a delegation of senior government officials, including the Minister of Defence and the Minister of Home Affairs, visited the affected communities to assess the situation and engage with local leaders.
A government statement described the unrest as “unacceptable” and warned against spreading false information capable of inciting violence.
Authorities also assured residents of their commitment to ensuring peace and protecting legitimate mining operations.
Officials said the chaos was largely driven by misleading social media posts suggesting that gold deposits were easily accessible in the area.
The posts prompted thousands to abandon their livelihoods in search of quick wealth, leading to illegal mining and lawlessness.
Experts have warned that such misinformation can have devastating consequences, including environmental destruction and loss of lives.
They also noted that the growing trend of unregulated artisanal mining across Zambia poses a serious challenge to sustainable development.
Zambia has witnessed several gold rush incidents in recent years, driven by rising global demand for the commodity and limited economic opportunities in rural communities.
Analysts say the latest unrest reiterates the need for the government to strengthen control over the mining sector, improve public awareness, and create safer opportunities for artisanal miners within a regulated framework.
Authorities have since intensified security presence in the region and appealed to residents to cooperate with law enforcement agencies to restore peace and normalcy.
Business
U.S. Yields to Pressure, Drops Mali from Visa Bond List
U.S. Yields to Pressure, Drops Mali from Visa Bond List
The United States has quietly withdrawn Mali from its controversial Visa Bond Pilot Programme, ending weeks of diplomatic tension with the West African nation just days before the policy was due to take effect.
In an update released on October 23, 2025, the U.S. Department of State confirmed that only six African countries — Mauritania, São Tomé and Príncipe, Tanzania, The Gambia, Malawi, and Zambia, remain subject to the visa-bond requirement, with implementation dates ranging from August to October 2025.
Mali, which was initially included in the October 8 listing, was noticeably omitted from the revised roster, a move interpreted by observers as a diplomatic backtrack following Bamako’s strong response.
According to the State Department, the initiative is backed by Section 221(g)(3) of the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) and the Temporary Final Rule governing the pilot scheme.
It said the decision was informed by data from the Department of Homeland Security on B-1/B-2 visa overstay rates among nationals of selected countries.
The visa-bond policy, which empowers U.S. consular officers to demand a refundable bond of up to $15,000 from certain visa applicants to guarantee their return, had sparked immediate outrage in Bamako.
Malian authorities denounced the measure as unfair and discriminatory, arguing that it singled out their citizens without justifiable cause.
In a rare show of diplomatic defiance, the Malian government responded by introducing a reciprocal visa-bond rule targeting U.S. travellers.
That tit-for-tat decision appeared to have forced Washington’s hand. With the potential for a full-blown diplomatic rift looming, the U.S. eventually removed Mali from the list, easing tensions between the two countries.
Analysts say the U.S. retreat underscores Washington’s desire to avoid deepening hostilities with Mali, which in recent years has redefined its foreign alliances and taken a more assertive stance in global diplomacy.
Bamako’s firm response, they argue, signalled its readiness to confront what it perceives as unilateral or prejudicial policy moves.
By stepping back, the U.S. has effectively prevented a visa-related dispute from escalating into a broader diplomatic impasse, even as other African countries remain under the visa-bond scheme.
Business
Finally, US, China End Trade War
Finally, US, China End Trade War
The United States and China have reached a framework agreement for a potential trade deal expected to be finalised when both leaders, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, meet later this week in South Korea.
US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, disclosed this during an interview with CBS, the BBC’s US news partner, saying the agreement covers a “final deal” on TikTok’s US operations and a deferral of China’s tightened restrictions on rare earth mineral exports.
He added that he does not expect the 100 per cent tariff earlier threatened by President Trump on Chinese goods to take effect, while China will resume large-scale purchases of US soybeans.
“We have reached a substantial framework for the two leaders,” Bessent said. “The tariffs will be averted.”
The development comes as both nations seek to prevent a fresh escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Bessent met senior Chinese trade officials on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Malaysia, which President Trump also attended as part of his Asian tour.
In a statement, the Chinese government confirmed that both sides held “constructive discussions” and “reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address their respective concerns.”
“Both sides agreed to further finalise specific details,” Beijing stated.
Since returning to the White House, President Trump has reintroduced aggressive trade policies, arguing that imposing tariffs on imported goods would boost US manufacturing and job creation.
His tariff measures have led several countries, including the United Kingdom, to renegotiate trade terms with Washington.
China has been the main target of the US president’s tariff strategy. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese goods starting in November, following Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth minerals — essential materials used in electronics, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies.
China processes about 90 per cent of the world’s rare earths, making it a dominant player in the global supply chain. Its restrictions earlier this year sparked outrage from US manufacturers that depend on the materials.
Bessent said China had now agreed to delay those export restrictions for one year while the two countries review their trade terms.
One of the biggest casualties of the trade dispute has been US soybean farmers, as China — the world’s largest soybean importer — halted purchases during the height of the trade conflict.
Bessent, himself a soybean farmer, hinted that the new framework would ease the pain of American farmers.
“I think we have addressed the farmers’ concerns,” he said. “When the announcement of the deal with China is made public, our soybean farmers will feel really good about what’s going on for this season and the coming seasons.”
The US Treasury Secretary also revealed that both countries had reached a final understanding on TikTok’s US operations, with Trump and Xi expected to “consummate that transaction” during their meeting on Thursday.
The White House had earlier insisted that TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, must divest its US arm over national security concerns. However, Trump has repeatedly extended the deadline to allow for negotiations.
Under the proposed arrangement, US companies will control TikTok’s algorithm, while Americans will hold six of seven board seats for its US entity.
Trump, who once called for TikTok’s outright ban, has since shifted position, using the app as part of his outreach strategy during his successful 2024 presidential campaign.
Meanwhile, Washington announced on Sunday that new trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia had been finalised, while frameworks had also been agreed with Thailand and Vietnam as part of efforts to expand American trade ties in Asia.
The outcome of this week’s meeting between Trump and Xi is expected to shape the next phase of US–China relations and determine whether the long-running trade tensions between both countries will ease or reignite.
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