Dangote vs PENGASSAN: When Labour Rights Collide with National Dreams

By Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman

The simmering conflict between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the Dangote Refinery is not just another workplace quarrel. It is a test case for how Nigeria intends to balance labour rights with its desperate need for industrial transformation. The refinery, a 650,000 barrels-per-day behemoth hailed as Africa’s largest, is meant to save Nigeria from the chokehold of fuel importation. But now, just as its promise begins to unfold, it is caught in the turbulence of labour agitation.

At the core of the dispute is PENGASSAN’s demand for recognition and collective bargaining rights for its members within the refinery. Reports suggest that Dangote Industries Limited has been reluctant to fully embrace union representation, raising questions about compliance with Nigeria’s labour laws and international conventions that guarantee workers the freedom of association. For PENGASSAN, which has long stood as a formidable force in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, this is not simply about one employer. It is about setting a precedent in a sector that could define Nigeria’s industrial future.

Although globally, these issues are common in large refinery operations. India’s Paradip Refinery experienced a massive strike in 2021 involving over 10,000 workers demanding better conditions. Brazil’s Petrobras has repeatedly faced union pushback, including a 2015 strike that cut production by 20 percent. In South Africa, chemical and refinery workers have staged strikes that paralysed supply until wage agreements were reached. The lesson is clear: mega refineries and mega unions often collide, and resolution depends on structured dialogue rather than confrontation.

Nigeria’s own history mirrors this global trend. Chevron, Shell, and other multinationals have clashed with PENGASSAN and NUPENG over welfare, pensions, and layoffs. In many cases, government intervention has served as the dealbreaker, with the Ministry of Labour stepping in to mediate. The Dangote Refinery dispute, however, is unique because of its dual nature — a privately owned enterprise with public ownership through NNPCL’s 20 percent stake. This means that the Nigerian state cannot sit idle while the project wobbles under labour unrest.

The facts speak loudly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial disputes cost Nigeria over N1.3 trillion between 2016 and 2021, with oil and gas taking the lion’s share. Global data from the International Trade Union Confederation further show that countries with robust collective bargaining systems — like Sweden and Denmark — record fewer strike days and higher productivity. Nigeria, with its fragile economy, can ill-afford prolonged shutdowns at the refinery that has been billed as the silver bullet for its foreign exchange crisis.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) conventions 87 and 98, both ratified by Nigeria, enshrine workers’ rights to organise and bargain collectively. If Dangote Industries ignores these obligations, it risks international criticism, reputational damage, and domestic instability. Yet, PENGASSAN also has a responsibility to frame its demands within the context of national economic realities. Striking a balance between workers’ rights and the refinery’s survival is the only path forward.

This is where lessons from global practice become crucial. In Germany, labour disputes in refineries are addressed through codetermination, where unions sit on company boards, ensuring dialogue before crisis. In Brazil and India, strikes often end with phased agreements that allow employers time to adjust while workers secure incremental gains. Nigeria must look in this direction, creating a structured negotiation platform that protects workers without crippling the refinery.

For Dangote, recognising PENGASSAN is not capitulation; it is an investment in industrial peace. For PENGASSAN, pressing its case should not come across as a political siege but as a constructive effort to align the refinery with global best practices. And for government, silence is not an option. With NNPCL as a shareholder, Abuja must assume its statutory role in preventing a strike that could cripple the very project marketed as Nigeria’s energy salvation.

The bigger picture cannot be ignored. The refinery was sold to Nigerians as a symbol of hope, a project that would slash fuel import bills, stabilise forex, and create jobs. But if its foundation is marred by labour unrest, it risks becoming another symbol of Nigeria’s chronic inability to balance growth with fairness. The refinery must not be allowed to mirror the failures of Ajaokuta Steel, where poor labour and policy management condemned a massive project to decades of waste.

The PENGASSAN–Dangote imbroglio is therefore not just about wages or recognition. It is about whether Nigeria can truly run world-class industrial projects without sacrificing the dignity of its workers. It is about whether labour rights and national dreams can co-exist. The choice before both sides is stark: confrontation that could stall progress, or dialogue that could set a benchmark for labour relations in Africa’s largest refinery.

History offers a blunt truth: great refineries around the world have all faced labour disputes. What distinguishes successful ones is not the absence of conflict but the maturity of resolution. Nigeria has a chance to show such maturity now. If PENGASSAN and Dangote sit across the table and forge an agreement, they will not only save a refinery but also script a new chapter in Nigeria’s industrial history. If they do not, the dream of energy independence could collapse under the weight of industrial disharmony.

In the end, the refinery must not only refine crude oil; it must also refine Nigeria’s labour practices. That is the true test of national transformation.

Dollar Rebounds as Traders Eye Possible Fed Rate Cut in September

The U.S. dollar staged a rebound on Monday, gaining ground against major currencies after suffering sharp losses last week on the back of dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which had strengthened expectations of an interest rate cut in September.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.49 per cent to 98.32, marking its biggest daily advance since July 30.

The euro slipped 0.69 per cent to $1.1634, retreating from Friday’s four-week high of $1.1742.

The rebound comes as global markets weigh Powell’s remarks that risks to the U.S. labour market are rising, even though inflation remains a concern.

Analysts at Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank now project a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting.

“While Powell and company are undoubtedly still leaning toward cutting interest rates next month, upcoming U.S. economic data could sway the decision,” said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX.

“Forex traders are hedging their bets as a September cut isn’t guaranteed, and the dollar’s modest recovery reflects that caution.”

Market pricing showed an 84.3 per cent probability of a September rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool — a slight dip from 84.7 per cent in the prior session but well above the 61.9 per cent recorded a month ago.

Meanwhile, U.S. stocks closed weaker on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 0.75 per cent, the S&P 500 falling by 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping by 0.2 per cent.

Treasury yields also edged higher, with the two-year note, which is highly sensitive to Fed expectations, up four basis points at 3.728 per cent.

Across the Atlantic, euro zone bond yields climbed as traders recalibrated their outlook, aided by data showing a pickup in German business confidence.

Germany’s 10-year yield rose 3.9 basis points to 2.758 per cent, close to a five-month peak of 2.787 per cent.

Despite Monday’s recovery, the dollar remains under pressure, having weakened by more than nine per cent so far this year, while the euro has gained over 12 per cent.

Analysts such as Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, predict the euro could strengthen further to $1.20–$1.22 within the next year.

Investor attention is also fixed on escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve, with Trump’s repeated criticism of Powell and other Fed officials raising fresh concerns about the central bank’s independence at a sensitive time for monetary policy.

IEA Warns of Record Oil Glut in 2026 as Supply Outpaces Demand Growth

Global oil markets are headed for a record supply surplus next year, with production growth far outstripping demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based body projected that oil inventories could grow by 2.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 — a buildup even higher than the average surplus recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020.

The IEA said world oil demand growth this year and next will slow to less than half the pace seen in 2023, weighed down by weaker consumption in major markets like China, India and Brazil.

Global consumption is forecast to expand by only 680,000 bpd in 2025 — the slowest since 2019 — before inching up by 700,000 bpd in 2026.

Meanwhile, supplies are surging. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, has accelerated the restart of previously halted production, while output outside the group — particularly from the U.S., Guyana, Canada and Brazil — is also rising.

The agency revised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 upward by 100,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

“Oil-market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026,” the IEA stated.

“It is clear that something will have to give for the market to balance.”

Crude prices have already slipped about 12% this year, trading near $66 per barrel in London, amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war could dampen global economic growth.

While the price drop offers relief to consumers and a political win for Trump’s push for lower fuel costs, it poses significant financial challenges for oil-producing nations and companies.

Oil markets are currently drawing some support from strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the IEA noted that inventories — which hit a 46-month high in June — suggest oversupply pressures are already in play.

It added that new geopolitical shocks, such as sanctions on Russia or Iran, could still reshape the outlook.

The projected glut would be the largest annual surplus on record, although the second quarter of 2020 — when lockdowns slashed demand by over 7 million bpd — remains the biggest quarterly excess in history.