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OPEC Predicts Increase Hydrocarbon Demand To Peak By 2030
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that hydrocarbon demand will increase and reach its peak by the year 2030. OPEC Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, made this prediction during the 2024 Nigerian Oil and Gas (NOG) conference.He stated that despite calls for discontinuing investment in the energy sector, demand for hydrocarbons is expected to peak by 2030.
Al Ghais emphasized that those seeking to stop investment in hydrocarbons have lost touch with reality, as governments and companies are already reviewing energy transition strategies and timelines. He also pointed out that the rush to adopt “Net-Zero” strategies was misguided and unrealistic.
OPEC predicts that energy demand will rise by 23% by 2045, driven by a growing world economy and population. To meet this growing demand, the industry will need to increase investment levels significantly. OPEC estimates that cumulative oil-related investment requirements will amount to approximately $14 trillion from now until 2045.
The prediction by OPEC contradicts the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast that global oil demand will peak before 2030. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that growth in global oil demand is slowing down and is set to reach its peak by 2030. However, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais disagreed with the IEA’s outlook, noting that peak demand warnings have been repeated since the 1880s and have yet to manifest.
OPEC has slammed the IEA’s forecast of peak oil demand by 2030 as “dangerous” and “unrealistic”. Al Ghais wrote in a column that the narrative that oil demand will peak before 2030 is a continuation of the IEA’s anti-oil narrative and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.
In its report, the IEA stated that oil demand growth is set to slow in the coming years and global demand will peak in 2029, while rising production will lead to a major glut this decade. However, OPEC maintains that the world will require all forms of energy to meet long-term energy needs, and oil and gas will remain the predominant fuels in the
energy mix.
Overall, the prediction by OPEC that hydrocarbon demand will increase and reach its peak by 2030 highlights the ongoing debate about the future of energy demand and the role of fossil fuels in the energy mix. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of energy security, climate change, and sustainable development, it is clear that the energy landscape will continue to evolve in the coming years.
Nigerian banks’ rush to upgrade their core banking systems has caused confusion and frustration for many customers. With banks upgrading to more secure software, the lack of communication and customer support has left millions unable to access their funds, sparking questions about the bank’s commitment to customer welfare.
Dr. Uju Ogubunka, President of Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN), emphasized the severe impact of these disruptions, stressing the need for better communication and customer preparedness during such transitions. Banks must strike a balance between technological upgrades and customer service to retain trust, especially in an economy facing devaluation pressures.
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As Nigeria commemorates its 64th Independence anniversary, the stark contrast between celebration and the persistent challenges of corruption, mismanagement, and unfulfilled promises becomes evident.
The editorial revisits historical attempts at reform, such as the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission’s (ICPC) prosecutions and the House of Representatives’ inquiry into the unfulfilled $14.5 million aircraft repair contract. Many of these initiatives have faded from public memory, leaving questions about accountability unresolved.
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In a significant blow to Scotland’s energy sector, the 100-year-old Grangemouth refinery is set to close in 2025, citing its inability to compete with modern plants in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The refinery’s operator, Petroineos, announced the closure, which will result in the loss of 400 jobs.
Located in Scotland, Grangemouth refinery has been in operation since 1924, making it the country’s oldest and only refinery. However, despite its rich history, the refinery has struggled to remain competitive in the face of mounting global competition. Petroineos, a joint venture between PetroChina Internation al London (PCIL) and INEOS Group, a British chemicals firm founded by billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe, has invested $1.2 billion in the refinery since 2011.
However, the company has incurred significant losses, totalling over $775 million during the same period. According to Petroineos, the refinery is currently losing around $500,000 per day and expects a $200 million loss in 2024.
The company’s Chief Executive, Frank Demay, stated that the market for petrol and diesel fuels is expected to shrink further due to the upcoming ban on new petrol and diesel cars within the next decade. “Grangemouth is increasingly unable to compete with bigger, more modern and efficient sites in the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Due to its size and configuration, Grangemouth incurs high levels of capital expenditure each year just to maintain its licence to operate,” Demay explained. The closure of Grangemouth refinery marks a significant shift in the global oil refining landscape, with modern and efficient plants in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East gaining a competitive edge. The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, one of the largest refineries in Africa, may have contributed to the decline of Grangemouth refinery.
The refinery will be converted into a fuel import terminal, ensuring Scotland’s energy needs are still met. However, the closure raises concerns about the country’s energy security and the impact on local communities.
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