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Fitch Projects Nigeria’s External Debt Service to Hit $5.2bn in 2025

Fitch Projects Nigeria’s External Debt Service to Hit $5.2bn in 2025
Nigeria’s external debt service is projected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025, reflecting mounting pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms, Fitch Ratings has said.
The credit rating agency made this known in its latest rating action commentary released on Friday, where it upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, with a stable outlook.
According to Fitch, the country’s external debt service obligations will increase from $4.7 billion in 2024 to $5.2 billion in 2025. This includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025.
“Government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2bn in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7bn in 2024, and fall to $3.5bn in 2026,” Fitch stated.
The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, describing it as a reflection of persistent challenges in public financial management.
While Nigeria’s debt service remains within manageable levels, Fitch warned that rising interest costs, weak revenue performance, and constrained fiscal space remain key vulnerabilities.
General government debt is projected to remain stable at around 51% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. However, Fitch flagged concerns about the country’s low revenue base and high debt servicing costs.
“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” the agency said.
Fitch noted that Nigeria’s gross external reserves climbed to $41 billion at the end of 2024 but later declined to $38 billion due to debt servicing. Still, reserves are expected to average five months of current external payments over the medium term—above the median for similarly rated economies.
The agency added that recent policy reforms have supported improved foreign exchange inflows and greater monetary stability. Inflation is projected to average 22% in 2025.
Diaspora
Diaspora Watch – Vol. 44

Diaspora Watch – Vol. 44 (April 28 – May 4, 2025)
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The world is abuzz with breaking news, and the 44th edition of Diaspora Watch is your passport to the most critical global developments. From the hallowed halls of the Vatican to the bustling streets of Geneva, our spotlight shines bright on the stories that matter most.
Witness the high-stakes diplomatic dance between the US and Iran, as they hold new talks in Oman amid a push for a nuclear deal. Meanwhile, in Rome, hundreds of thousands pay their respects to Pope Francis, while Trump and Zelensky hold a pivotal meeting at the Vatican.
In Sudan, the crisis deepens as displaced people resort to eating leaves and charcoal to survive. The world watches with bated breath as the situation unfolds.
California has overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy, while the threat of crypto investment scams looms large, with $5.8 billion lost in 2024 alone.
Oluwatobiloba Amusan returns to action in the Xiamen Diamond League, and the world waits with anticipation for the selection of a new Pope. Who will be the next leader of the Catholic Church?
The Caribbean Investment Summit in Antigua brings together leaders and investors, while Qatar’s aviation scholarships and training opportunities are a beacon of hope for CARICOM citizens.
These and many more are for your reading pleasure. Dive into the 44th edition of Diaspora Watch and stay informed about the stories shaping our world.
Diaspora
US, Iran to Hold New Talks in Oman Amid Nuclear Deal Push

Top negotiators from the United States and Iran are set to meet again in Oman on Saturday, aiming to make progress towards a new agreement that would curb Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme.
The meeting will involve Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, and Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who will negotiate indirectly through Omani mediators.
The talks follow a productive round of discussions in Rome last week, which both sides described as constructive.
The new discussions are expected to begin at expert level, with the aim of setting the stage for direct talks between the two lead negotiators.
US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in securing a deal, saying: “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran.”
However, significant differences remain over the nuclear dispute, which has persisted for over two decades.
The US has withdrawn from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers and imposed a stringent “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, reimposing crippling sanctions. In response, Iran has breached the terms of the pact, particularly in its nuclear activities.
Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment, reaching up to 60% purity, a significant step towards the 90% purity required for weapons-grade uranium.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that a new deal would require Iran to cease all uranium enrichment and import any enriched uranium it needs for its Bushehr nuclear power plant.
However, Tehran is unwilling to make such concessions, insisting that ending its enrichment programme or surrendering its enriched uranium stockpiles are “red lines” that cannot be crossed.
Iranian officials have stated that their country will consider negotiating some limits on its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
The talks have also highlighted concerns over Iran’s missile programme, which Tehran insists is non-negotiable.
An Iranian official said that Tehran views its missile programme as an even greater obstacle to reaching an agreement than its nuclear work.
The outcome of these talks will have significant implications for regional and global security, and it remains to be seen whether the two sides can find common ground.
A successful deal would not only benefit the two countries but also contribute to regional and global stability.
News
Grenada PM Attends Caribbean Investment Summit in Antigua

Prime Minister of Grenada, Honourable Dickon Mitchell, attended the 2025 Caribbean Investment Summit (CIS25) in Antigua and Barbuda.
The summit, themed “Integrity. Stability. Sustainability — CBI Pathway to Economic Prosperity,” provided a platform for regional leaders to discuss investment strategies and economic development.
During the Stakeholder Impact Session, “Adapting to the New Regulatory Era,” the Prime Minister engaged with other Caribbean leaders, Heads of Citizenship by Investment Units (CIUs), and senior officials on strengthening the region’s investment ecosystem.
The session focused on advancing the summit’s core pillars of integrity, stability, sustainability, and economic prosperity.
A closed-door meeting followed, where Prime Ministers, CIU Heads, and the Joint Regional Communications Centre (JRCC) deliberated on regional investment and development strategies.
The summit aimed to foster collaboration and drive economic growth in the Caribbean region.
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