Opinion
From Front-Runner To Follower: Nigeria’s Economic Decline
In 1960, Nigeria’s GDP per capita exceeded China’s, indicating a lead in unit productivity and prosperity. However, by 1999, China’s GDP per capita had surpassed Nigeria’s, beginning a trend of increasing economic growth. Today, China is a global economic powerhouse, while Nigeria struggles to reclaim its lost lead.
Nigeria and China share a similar history, with both countries gaining independence in the mid-20th century. However, their economic trajectories have diverged significantly. China’s economic reforms, implemented in 1978, prioritized innovation, education, and controlled population growth.
In contrast, Nigeria economic growth has been hindered by lack of strategic planning and implementation. 1999 marked a turning point in the economic fortunes of both nations. China’s
GDP per capita surpassed Nigeria’s, and the gap has continued to widen. Today, China’s GDP per capita stands at $24,558, while Nigeria’s is $6,318. China’s poverty rate has declined significantly, with less than 0.1% of the population living on less than $2.15 per day.
In contrast, Nigeria’s poverty rate remains high, with 30.9% of the population living on less than $2.15 per day. China’s GDP growth rate has consistently outpaced Nigeria’s, with a growth rate of 6.1% in 2020 compared to Nigeria’s 1.9%. A key factor in China’s success has been its meritocratic system, which ensures that political leaders are well educated and experienced.
In contrast, only 42.9% of Nigerian presidents have completed a university education since 1960. China’s economic reforms have been driven by a focus on innovation, education, and controlled population growth. The country’s export led growth strategy and “Made in China 2025” initiative have positioned it as a leading global player in manufacturing. Indonesia’s success offers valuable lessons for Nigeria.
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The country’s focus on manufacturing, investments in transportation and storage, and effective implementation and monitoring teams have driven its economic growth.
The Nigerian Economic Society’s economic dialogue offers a chance for Nigeria to reclaim its lost lead. Will the country take the cue and transition from participant to convener of a Forum on Nigeria-Africa Cooperation (FONAC) or Forum of Nigeria-Asia Cooperation (FONASC)?
Nigeria’s lost lead is a cautionary tale of how a country can fall behind due to lack of strategic planning and implementation. However, it is not too late for Nigeria to reclaim its lead. By learning from China’s and Indonesia’s success, Nigeria can drive its economic growth and reclaim its position as a leading economic power in Africa.
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Get ready for the most explosive edition yet! Diaspora Watch 41 is packed with breaking news, shocking revelations, and in-depth analysis of the events shaping our world.
Mnangagwa faces his biggest threat yet as a fierce succession battle rages on in Zimbabwe, while US stocks plummet after Trump announces tariffs on most countries.
South Africa’s unity government teeters on the brink as the DA rejects the national budget, and Norway shuts down its embassy in South Sudan as violence escalates.
In other news, the DR Congo commutes the death sentences of three Americans to life imprisonment, sparking widespread relief.
In the world of sports, Nigerian boxer Segun Olanrewaju tragically dies after collapsing during a match in Ghana, while Ola Aina emerges as the most prolific dribbler in the FA Cup.
A Nigerian doctor is embroiled in a UK visa scandal, sparking outrage and concern. Nigeria’s foreign reserves decline by $2.55 billion in Q1 2025, while Africa’s exports hit a record $682 billion in 2024.
CARICOM and Afreximbank launch a groundbreaking ceremony for the African Trade Centre.
In entertainment news, Kanye West hints at a split from his wife Bianca Censori in his latest song.
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The persistent conflict between herders and farming communities in Nigeria has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives over the past decade. This crisis has primarily affected the Middle Belt and Northern regions, but it is now spreading into the South.
The urgency to end the herder-related killings cannot be overstated. It is not only a humanitarian imperative but also essential for Nigeria’s national stability and economic development.
According to the United Nations, desertification affects more than 60% of Nigeria’s land area, forcing pastoralists primarily Fulani herders to migrate south- ward in search of pasture. This migration often leads to clashes with farming communities over land and resources. With Nigeria’s population currently exceeding 220 mil- lion and projected to double by 2050, competition for land and resources will only intensify.
Weak state institutions, the proliferation of small arms, ethnic and religious tensions, and the failure of law enforcement to hold perpetrators accountable have all exacerbated the crisis. A 2022 Small Arms Survey estimated that Time To End Herders’ Killings In Nigeria Is Now over 6 million small arms are in civilian hands in Nigeria, further fueling the violence.
The killings have devastated rural communities. Nigerians in the diaspora, many of whom have roots in the affected areas, are heartbroken as they witness their kinsmen slaughtered by rampaging criminals and armed herd- ers in states such as Benue, Plateau, and Enugu. Despite repeated government assurances, there appears to be little real progress in addressing the insecurity.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), over 8,000 people have been killed in herder-farmer related violence between 2011 and 2023. In 2018 alone, more than 1,600 lives were lost in such clashes surpassing the number of deaths caused by Boko Ha- ram that year.
A report by the SBM intelligence titled “A National Emergency: The Escalating Crisis of Pastoral Violence in Nigeria, reads in part:
The geographical pattern of pastoral violence in Nigeria paints a troubling picture of relentless expansion. Between 2019 and 2025, the North-Central zone remained the most severely affected region, with Benue State enduring over 200 documented attacks, cementng its grim reputation as the epicenter of the crisis.”
“Neighbor- ing Plateau State followed closely with 150 incidents. Their shared border has transformed into a deadly conflict zone, exemplified by the May 2023 massacre in Mangu, which left 80 people dead, followed seven months later by the Christmas Eve atrocity in Bokkos, which claimed 140 lives.”
“The violence spread out- ward along predictable path- ways. Kaduna in the North- west recorded concerning numbers of attacks, while Adamawa in the Northeast displayed increasing vulnerability.”
The International Crisis Group reports that the violence has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, while a 2020 World Bank report estimated that Nigeria loses $13.7 billion annually due to agricultural disruptions caused by the conflict.
Despite widespread media coverage and public outcry, the Nigerian government has been slow and ineffective in addressing the crisis. Be- yond a lack of accountability, the country’s security forces are overstretched. With a police-to-citizen ratio of ap- proximately 1:540—below the UN’s recommended 1:450— there is an urgent need to strengthen local policing. Establishing mobile courts in conflict-prone areas could also enhance justice delivery and deter future violence.
Political neutrality is critical in resolving this crisis. The weaponization of ethnic identities and politicization of security issues only worsen the situation. National unity and strong political will are essential.
The killings must stop. Nigeria cannot continue to lose lives, homes, and futures to a crisis that is both prevent- able and solvable. With the right mix of policy, enforcement, empathy, and account- ability, peace is achievable. The cost of inaction is sim- ply too high.
Even remittances from Nigerians abroad thrive better in a stable environment. The Nigerian government must demonstrate that it is ready and able to fulfill its primary responsibility: protecting the lives and property of its citizens. The time to act is now for the sake of unity, stability, and the future of Nigeria.
A disturbing trend of fraudulent recruitment agencies in Nigeria is preying on the hopes of individuals seeking caregiving jobs in the UK. This investigative piece unveils the heartbreaking stories of victims lured by false promises of Certificates of Sponsorship (CoS), leaving them financially and emotionally devastated. With rising demand for care workers in the UK, these scams are becoming more sophisticated, trapping many in a web of deceit. Discover the urgent need for regulatory action and awareness to protect vulnerable migrants.
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