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Analysis

Atiku, Why Again? By Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman

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Atiku, Why Again? By Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman

 

In Nigerian politics, ambition is not unusual. Neither is persistence. But when a politician has been on the presidential ballot for several years without success, it is fair to ask a simple question: what is the plan this time that was not there before?

 

That question has come up again after the recent television interview by Atiku Abubakar, where he made it clear that he intends to run for president in 2027. If he does, it will be his seventh attempt.

 

The interview, aired on ARISE TV on Wednesday, April 15th, was meant to position him as a leading figure in the opposition ahead of the next election. Instead, it has brought back old doubts about his long political journey, his repeated attempts, and whether anything has really changed.

 

Atiku did not present his ambition as something he was still considering. He spoke as someone already committed to the race. He also described the 2027 election as his “last outing,” suggesting that this would be his final attempt.

 

At the same time, he tried to balance two positions. He said he was open to working with others in a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). But he also made it clear that he would contest for the ticket and would not step aside for anyone, including Peter Obi, Kwankwaso and others.

 

That position is important. It shows that while he talks about unity, he is not ready to sacrifice his own ambition for it. This has been a consistent feature of his politics over the years.

 

Atiku has been in Nigerian politics for over three decades. He served as vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007. That position gave him national visibility and influence. However, his main political identity today is built around his repeated attempts to become president. He first contested in the early 1990s. Since then, he has run in 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. He lost all.

 

This history matters. It is not just about numbers. It shapes how voters see him. Many Nigerians now associate him more with contesting elections than with holding office. So the issue is not just that he is running again. The real issue is why he believes this time will be different.

 

One major part of Atiku’s strategy over the years has been changing political platforms. He started with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the early 1990s, moved to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), later joined the Action Congress (AC), returned to the PDP, then moved to the All Progressives Congress (APC), and went back again to the PDP before aligning with the ADC for now.

 

This kind of movement is often explained as political strategy. Nigerian parties are not strongly ideological, so politicians move when they feel their chances are better elsewhere. But frequent defection also raises questions. It becomes difficult to clearly define what a politician stands for beyond personal ambition. In Atiku’s case, every move has been tied to his presidential ambition. When one platform does not work, he looks for another. That approach may be practical, but it also creates doubts about consistency.

 

The ADC is now being presented as a platform for a broad opposition coalition ahead of 2027. For Atiku, it is another opportunity to reposition himself and work with other opposition figures. The idea of a coalition is simple: bring together different political forces to challenge the ruling party, currently led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

 

However, coalitions are not easy to manage. They involve people with different ambitions, different support bases, and different strategies. In this case, figures like Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Rauf Aregbesola, David Mark, Rotimi Amaechi et al also have strong followings.

 

Atiku’s decision to insist on contesting may create crisis within the coalition. While his experience and national network are advantages, his ambition could also divide the group. So his presence in the ADC is both helpful and complicated.

 

Although Atiku said in the interview that 2027 would be his final attempt. By then, he will be close to 80 years old, so the claim is understandable. But Nigerian politics has seen similar claims before. Politicians often say an election will be their last, only to return again later. This is why many people are not fully convinced.

 

More importantly, the idea of a “last attempt” raises a bigger issue. Should leadership at this stage focus on long-term national direction or on completing a personal political journey? This is where age and generational change come into the conversation. Nigeria has a very young population. Many voters are looking for new faces and new ideas. Atiku represents experience, but he also represents an older political generation.

 

Atiku’s biggest strengths are clear. He has experience, name recognition, and a strong political network across the country. He understands the system and knows how to run national campaigns. But these strengths come with weaknesses. His long history also connects him to past political practices that many Nigerians now question. Some voters see him as part of the old system rather than a candidate for change.

 

In his interview, he spoke about reforms, including constitutional changes and power rotation. However, critics point out that his positions on some of these issues have changed over time, depending on political circumstances. This gap between what he says now and what he has done before is part of the trust problem he faces.

 

From a political standpoint, Atiku’s decision to run again is not without logic. He is likely counting on strong support from the northern region and hoping that dissatisfaction with the current administration will work in his favour.

 

Economic challenges and public frustration could create an opportunity for the opposition. Atiku is trying to position himself as the candidate who can benefit from that situation. However, the situation is not simple. The opposition is not united. There are other strong candidates. Voters are also becoming less predictable.

 

Winning an election now requires more than regional strength. It requires broad national appeal and the ability to connect with younger voters. This is where Atiku faces his biggest test.

 

At a broader level, Atiku’s repeated candidacies reflect a pattern in Nigerian politics. The same group of politicians continues to dominate the system, moving between parties and positions. This makes it harder for new leaders to emerge. It also creates a sense that elections are contests between familiar faces rather than opportunities for real change. Atiku is not the only example of this, but he is one of the most visible.

 

If Atiku wants to convince Nigerians this time, he needs to do more than declare his intention to run. He needs to explain clearly why he has not succeeded before and what will be different now.

 

He also needs to show that his campaign is not just another attempt, but a new approach. That includes how he plans to govern, how he will address current challenges, and how he will work with other political actors. Without this, his candidacy risks being seen as a repeat of previous efforts.

 

Atiku Abubakar has the right to contest for president. That is not in question. The real issue is whether his continued participation adds value to the political process or simply repeats what Nigerians have already seen.

 

His recent interview has reopened an important debate. It is not just about him. It is about the direction of Nigerian politics, the need for new leadership, and the balance between experience and change.

 

As 2027 approaches, voters will have to decide. Do they want to give Atiku another chance, or do they want something different?

 

Alabidun is a media practitioner and can be reached via alabidungoldenson@gmail.com

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Analysis

Tinubu, EFCC and the Danger of Political Interference, by Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman 

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Tinubu, EFCC and the Danger of Political Interference, by Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman 

 

There are moments when the intention behind an official decision may be defensible, yet the decision itself opens a door that ought to concern every citizen. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s intervention in the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s freezing of an Osun State Government account is one of those moments.

 

On August 6, 2026, with the Osun governorship election only nine days away, Tinubu directed the EFCC to return to court, vacate the order freezing an account belonging to the Osun State Government and discontinue the action it had instituted. The President said he was “deeply embarrassed” not by the EFCC’s exercise of its mandate, which he acknowledged was backed by a court order, but by its timing.

 

His explanation was understandable. Tinubu said actions taken by federal institutions were ordinarily attributed to him as President, whether or not he had prior knowledge of them. Since the election was approaching, he argued, nothing should be done that could create the impression that the EFCC or another Federal Government agency was being used to influence the election.

 

The argument is “morally” correct. But it also creates a difficult constitutional and institutional question: where does legitimate presidential concern about an election end and operational interference in an anti-corruption agency begin?

 

The EFCC did not arbitrarily descend on Osun. The commission said it had observed “huge transfers of funds into different corporate entities” from the state account and had acted to halt what it considered suspicious movement of public money. It argued that the approaching election could not become an excuse for an anti-corruption agency to ignore suspected movement of public funds.

 

Governor Ademola Adeleke, however, said the account was used for workers’ salaries and had been placed on a “Post No Debit” status. He demanded an explanation from EFCC Chairman Ola Olukoyede and described the action as another assault on Osun’s democracy.

 

The political atmosphere surrounding the matter had also been poisoned long before the account was frozen. In June, the Diaspora Committee of the All Progressives Congress Governorship Campaign Council in Osun asked the EFCC to freeze accounts allegedly connected with a reported N13.7bn annual ghost-workers payroll scandal. The committee claimed the money could be diverted to finance vote-buying ahead of the August 15 election. That background makes the EFCC’s action politically sensitive. But sensitivity is precisely why institutional independence matters.

 

The EFCC is a creation of statute. Under the EFCC (Establishment) Act, its chairman and members are appointed by the President, subject to Senate confirmation, while the law also provides for the chairman’s tenure and removal. The Presidency therefore has substantial influence over the commission’s leadership. That, however, does not make the President the operational head of every EFCC investigation.

 

There is an important distinction between constitutional authority over an institution and operational control of its investigations. A President may appoint the EFCC chairman, exercise statutory powers concerning the office, formulate broad government policy and demand accountability from federal agencies. But an anti-corruption agency must retain sufficient operational independence to determine whom to investigate, what evidence to pursue and what enforcement action to take.

 

Curiously, Tinubu himself made this case in the same statement. He said that since assuming office in May 2023, he had consistently maintained that anti-corruption and law-enforcement agencies should perform their statutory responsibilities independently and professionally, “without fear or favour, or political interference.” He added that he had deliberately refrained from directing or interfering in EFCC operations. That is why the Osun intervention becomes more concerning.

 

If a President can intervene in an operational decision because its timing might create an appearance of political interference, then the President has necessarily exercised influence over an operational decision. That does not automatically make the intervention unlawful. But it creates a precedent that future administrations may exploit.

 

Tinubu may genuinely believe the EFCC action could have been interpreted as an attempt to influence the Osun election. Another President could make the same argument about an investigation involving a governor, a minister, a major campaign financier or a politically influential contractor. If the principle becomes that the Presidency can intervene whenever enforcement action creates political controversy, the exception could eventually swallow the rule.

 

Nigeria’s history with the EFCC offers enough warnings. The commission was established in 2002 and began operations under President Olusegun Obasanjo, with Nuhu Ribadu becoming its pioneer chairman in 2003. Ribadu’s aggressive pursuit of governors, ministers, bankers and other powerful Nigerians gave the EFCC international prominence. But his controversial removal in 2007 also generated questions about the vulnerability of the commission to presidential and political interests.

 

Farida Waziri’s tenure produced another controversy. Appointed by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2008, she was removed by President Goodluck Jonathan on November 23, 2011. Years later, Waziri alleged that Jonathan’s administration had interfered with investigations and that her refusal to back down from a probe contributed to her removal. Though Jonathan rejected the allegation and challenged her to identify whom he had allegedly ordered her not to investigate.

 

The significance of those disputes is not simply who was right. It is that Nigerians repeatedly witnessed a situation in which the political leadership had enormous influence over the institution expected to investigate politically powerful people.

 

The Muhammadu Buhari administration provided another example. Buhari appointed Ibrahim Magu as acting EFCC chairman in 2015, despite the controversy that followed the Senate’s rejection of his nomination for substantive confirmation. On July 10, 2020, Buhari approved Magu’s suspension to allow a presidential panel to investigate allegations against him.

 

Again, the larger issue was institutional. The leadership of the EFCC remained heavily dependent on the Presidency, even though the commission’s work could directly affect members and allies of the governing political establishment. That is the weakness Nigeria has failed to resolve.

 

The President appoints the EFCC chairman. The commission investigates people who may have enormous political connections. The chairman therefore operates within an institutional structure in which the most powerful political office in the country has significant influence over the leadership of the agency.

 

This is why the Osun matter cannot be reduced to whether Tinubu had the right to be concerned about the election. Of course, he did. Elections must be protected from intimidation, manipulation and the misuse of state institutions. The harder question is whether that legitimate concern should be exercised through a presidential direction concerning a live EFCC enforcement matter.

 

There is also an important constitutional distinction regarding Adeleke. Section 308 of the 1999 Constitution grants a sitting governor immunity from civil or criminal proceedings in specified circumstances. But immunity is not exoneration. It does not mean a governor cannot be investigated, that evidence cannot be gathered or that public funds associated with a state government are beyond investigation.

 

If the EFCC had credible evidence of suspicious transfers, Adeleke’s candidacy should not automatically extinguish the commission’s investigative responsibility. Conversely, the approaching election should not give the EFCC licence to turn an investigation into a political weapon. The law must be stronger than both impulses.

 

That is why the better solution should have been procedural rather than presidential. If the EFCC had obtained a freezing order from a court and concerns subsequently arose about its timing or effect on essential state services, those concerns could have been presented before the court. If salaries needed to be paid, the government could have sought appropriate judicial relief.

 

Adeleke, too, must allow due process to take its course. If the EFCC acted unlawfully, the courts provide the remedy. If the allegations are false, evidence and due process should establish that fact.

 

For Olukoyede, the lesson is equally clear. The EFCC’s greatest asset is not proximity to the President but distance from political instruction. The commission must be prepared to investigate opposition politicians and members of the ruling party, governors and former governors, ministers and political financiers according to the same evidentiary standard.

 

Tinubu’s intervention, even if motivated by a legitimate desire to protect the integrity of the Osun election, should concern Nigerians. Institutions survive governments. Presidents come and go. Political parties win and lose elections.

 

If Tinubu truly wants Nigerians to believe that the EFCC is independent, the next step is obvious. He should help build an institutional framework in which no future President will need to intervene to prove that the EFCC is not being used politically. That is the real test of leadership. And that is the difference between fighting corruption under a President and building a country where the fight against corruption does not depend on the President.

 

Alabidun is a media practitioner and can be reached via alabidungoldenson@gmail.com

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Analysis

Jingir’s Words and the Challenge of Religious Tolerance, by Boniface Ihiasota 

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Jingir’s Words and the Challenge of Religious Tolerance, by Boniface Ihiasota 

 

Nigeria’s greatest strength has always been its diversity. Muslims, Christians, traditional worshippers and citizens of other beliefs have lived, worked, traded and built families across the country’s complicated social landscape. That is why recent utterances attributed to Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir deserve more than partisan applause or condemnation. They demand reflection.

 

At an event attended by, among others, Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf and Jigawa State Governor Umar Namadi, Sheikh Jingir renewed his support for a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 elections. He argued that Muslims should mobilise behind such a ticket and urged his audience to obtain their Permanent Voter Cards. He also referred to those opposed to his position as “infidels” and said Muslims should “show the infidels their limit.”

 

There is, of course, nothing inherently undemocratic about a Muslim advocating for Muslim candidates. Democracy gives every citizen the right to support candidates according to personal convictions, including religious convictions. The problem begins when political competition is framed as a contest between religious communities, particularly in a country where religious identity has historically been capable of provoking suspicion, fear and violence.

 

From the perspective of many Nigerians in the diaspora, this language is especially troubling. Those of us watching Nigeria from abroad understand that the country’s image is not determined only by government policies or economic statistics. It is also shaped by how Nigerians treat one another. When influential religious voices appear to portray fellow citizens as outsiders or enemies because of their faith, the damage extends beyond politics.

 

Nigeria is constitutionally a secular state, and Section 42 of the 1999 Constitution prohibits discrimination against citizens on grounds including religion. The implication is important: political participation is a citizenship right, not a privilege reserved for members of the religious majority.

 

This is where religious leadership carries an enormous responsibility. A Sheikh, pastor or traditional religious leader does not speak only to those seated before him. His words travel through social media, enter homes, influence young people and can be repeated long after the original gathering has ended.

 

Femi Fani-Kayode, Nigeria’s ambassador-designate to South Africa, made precisely this point in his reaction to Jingir’s comments, describing the rhetoric as provocative and warning that Nigeria is neither a Muslim nor a Christian country but a secular, multi-religious state. Human-rights lawyer Deji Adeyanju similarly warned on August 10, 2026, that religious rhetoric capable of deepening divisions between Christians and Muslims threatens national cohesion.

 

The lesson should not be that religious people must abandon their convictions. Quite the opposite. Strong faith should make Nigerians more committed to justice, dignity, compassion and peaceful coexistence. Nigeria does not need religious leaders who pretend that differences do not exist. It needs leaders mature enough to acknowledge those differences without turning them into political weapons.

 

The 2027 elections will come and go. Presidents will change, parties will win and lose, and politicians will eventually leave office. But Nigeria will remain. Muslims will continue living beside Christians; Christians will continue doing business with Muslims; and millions of families will continue to transcend religious boundaries. That enduring relationship is more important than any political ticket.

 

From the diaspora, therefore, the message is simple: Nigerians may disagree passionately about candidates, parties and policies, but we must never allow political competition to convince us that our fellow citizens are less Nigerian because they worship differently. Religious freedom means the freedom to believe. Religious tolerance means allowing another citizen to believe differently without treating that difference as a threat. Nigeria needs both.

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Analysis

Lessons from the Catholic Bishops’ Visit to Tinubu, by Boniface Ihiasota 

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Lessons from the Catholic Bishops’ Visit to Tinubu, by Boniface Ihiasota 

 

The recent visit of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the Presidential Villa was more than a ceremonial engagement. It became one of the clearest illustrations yet of the widening gap between official optimism and the daily realities confronting millions of Nigerians. The discussions that followed—and the public reactions they generated—have once again underscored the indispensable role of religious institutions in shaping national conversations on governance, accountability and social justice.

 

Led by the President of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria, Archbishop Matthew Man-Oso Ndagoso, the bishops used the opportunity to raise concerns over insecurity, economic hardship, unemployment and the general welfare of Nigerians. They also urged President Tinubu to formally invite Pope Leo XIV to Nigeria, arguing that such a visit would strengthen peace, unity and national reconciliation.

 

President Tinubu, on his part, defended his administration’s reforms, insisting that the difficult decisions taken since assuming office were necessary to rescue the economy from years of structural distortions. He maintained that security architecture was being repositioned and that prosperity would eventually follow the current sacrifices.

 

Ordinarily, such exchanges between government and faith leaders are healthy in every democracy. However, the conversation assumed greater significance after Cardinal John Onaiyekan publicly disclosed that the President disagreed with many of the bishops’ assessments. According to the Cardinal, the bishops told Tinubu that “the economy is not helping our poor people,” while the President maintained that the economy was improving. The revelation immediately triggered widespread debate across political and religious circles because it exposed two sharply contrasting narratives about the state of the nation.

 

Yet, facts remain stubborn. Nigeria continues to face severe economic challenges. Inflation has remained elevated over the past two years, food prices have climbed dramatically, and millions of households continue to struggle with declining purchasing power. The World Bank has repeatedly warned that while reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalisation may improve long-term fiscal sustainability, they also impose painful short-term costs on vulnerable citizens unless accompanied by robust social protection measures.

 

This explains why the bishops’ intervention resonated beyond the Catholic faithful. Religious leaders occupy a unique position in Nigerian society. They interact daily with ordinary citizens who seek assistance through churches, mosques and community organisations. Consequently, their assessment of public suffering often reflects grassroots realities that official statistics may not immediately capture.

 

The reactions also revealed an important democratic principle. Criticism of government should not automatically be interpreted as political opposition. Throughout Nigeria’s democratic history, both Christian and Muslim leaders have consistently spoken against corruption, insecurity, injustice and poverty irrespective of which party occupies Aso Rock. Their constitutional freedom to speak truth to power remains essential to democratic accountability.

 

At the same time, government officials equally have the responsibility to explain policies and defend their decisions. Democracy thrives not when everyone agrees but when disagreements are managed through dialogue rather than hostility. The exchange between Tinubu and the bishops should therefore be viewed as evidence that democratic engagement remains alive, provided both sides continue to listen respectfully.

 

The larger lesson is that perception matters almost as much as policy. Economic indicators may improve on paper, but if ordinary Nigerians cannot afford food, healthcare, education or transportation, public confidence will remain elusive. Governments ultimately earn legitimacy not through optimistic speeches but through measurable improvements in people’s quality of life.

 

As Nigeria journeys toward the 2027 elections, the meeting between the Catholic bishops and President Tinubu should remind both leaders and citizens that governance is not merely about defending statistics or winning arguments. It is about restoring hope. That hope will be strengthened only when policy outcomes begin to match the lived experiences of the millions whose voices the bishops sought to amplify.

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