President William Ruto’s declaration that he won’t relinquish power to the opposition has intensified fears of democratic erosion and raised questions about whether he is beginning to panic.

Speaking on 17 June in the Rift Valley town of Naivasha, Ruto ridiculed his opponents as “tribalists with no plan” and appeared to mock the idea of conceding defeat. “We cannot hand over leadership to such people,” he told supporters in the west of the capital, Nairobi. However, he later added that leadership is not defined by how many terms one serves, but critics say the damage is already done.

His comments have ignited fears that the president, who campaigned as a reformer, is now laying the groundwork for a disputed election and an unconstitutional power grab. To many Kenyans, his remarks crossed the line. Critics say they signal not just contempt for the opposition, but for constitutional democracy itself.

“Kenya is a constitutional democracy, not your empire,” said constitutional lawyer Willis Otieno, stressing that under the Kenyan constitution, the peaceful transfer of power is not optional: “If Ruto loses and refuses to hand over, the inauguration will go on with or without him.”

Under the Assumption of the Office of President Act, once the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declares a winner and the Supreme Court affirms it, the handover must proceed. If the outgoing president boycotts the ceremony, his absence won’t invalidate the transition.

If Ruto refuses to hand over the ceremonial sword and Constitution — symbols of executive authority — he will become the first Kenyan leader since independence in 1963 to flout this democratic ritual.

A presidency under pressure?

Analysts say behind Ruto’s bravado lies a growing sense of unease ahead of the next election. The economy is teetering under the weight of public debt and high cost of living, protests are surging, and a more unified opposition is beginning to emerge.

Ruto may have delivered on some key policy interventions, but poor communications, economic pain, and police brutality have made him deeply unpopular

His former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, has teamed up with political heavyweights including Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua and Fred Matiang’i to forge a united front. Gachagua was quick to respond to the president’s remarks: “It’s good that Ruto has admitted he will be ousted,” he told a rally in Kirinyaga county.

At the same time, Ruto allies have made public comments that further inflamed concerns. “Even if he does not get enough votes, we shall add him more,” said Oscar Sudi, MP for Kapseret. Senate majority leader Aaron Cheruiyot added, “It is our responsibility to uphold the tradition of two-term presidencies.”

The rhetoric has raised fears that the 2027 election may not be fought on a level playing field or respected if lost.

The Gen-Z factor

For many young Kenyans, Ruto’s words seem to confirm a broader shift away from democratic norms. On 17 June—the same day he made his remarks—police opened fire on peaceful Gen-Z protesters in Nairobi, following the death in custody of 31-year-old blogger Albert Ojwang. Shocking footage, including a protester being shot at close range, quickly went viral.

Kenya is a constitutional democracy, not your empire

Amnesty International Kenya called it “a dark day for the right to protest”, accusing the state of deploying “violent groups with support from the very authorities meant to protect us”.

Gachagua condemned the brutality, calling it “one of the lowest moments in our post-independence history”, and accused Ruto of turning Kenya into “a pariah state”.

The protests are the latest expression of youth-led frustration over rising inequality, police brutality and the president’s perceived betrayal of his 2022 campaign promises.

After the 2024 Finance Bill protests, Ruto sought détente with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, co-opting parts of his ODM party into government. But even Raila’s support or silence may not be enough to rescue the president’s battered image. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna is among those unconvinced that an alliance would help. “Ruto has lost the people. Even if Raila supports him, he will still lose,” Sifuna said.

Analysts agree that the opposition still lacks cohesion, but say a credible challenger like Matiang’i, the former interior minister, could mount a serious campaign. “Ruto may have delivered on some key policy interventions,” says political analyst Dismas Mokua, “but poor communications, economic pain, and police brutality have made him deeply unpopular”.

A stress test for Kenyan democracy

Ruto’s comments may have been intended to project strength, but many say it instead exposed his growing vulnerability.

With the economy fragile, opposition unity on the rise and youth protests building momentum, the real question is no longer just whether Ruto can win a second term but whether Kenya’s democracy can survive the pressure.

“Ruto has shot himself in the foot,” says governance expert Torosterdt Alenga. “It’s clear the handover of power could be contested. His allies are rattled and for good reason. 2027 is no longer a sure thing.”