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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

As Kamala Harris Enters The US Election Danger Zone, We Are About To See If Hope Trumps Fear

BY ARTHUR SINODINOS


As an Australian onlooker, the pageantry of American politics – party conventions in particular – can seem like a spectacle compared with the austerity of Australian elections.

But after the DNC celebrations in Chicago wind down, the Democratic party is facing the hard reality of a serious fight ahead of November’s presidential election.

At this stage of the campaign, it’s better to be in Kamala Harris’ shoes than Donald Trump’s. But she has some work to do yet and is maybe a couple of points off a genuine lead.

She is now entering the danger zone. The home stretch traditionally kicks off on Labor Day on the first Monday in September, when everyone returns to work. Most voters are locked into their choice by now but must be motivated to stay engaged and cast their vote. Ballot papers will start going out soon in some states.

The few undecideds now start to focus on the campaign. By this stage, candidates should have honed their messages down to a few key points that they will repeat ad nauseam until election day. By the end of it, the candidates will have very little fuel left in the tank.

The major events to come are the debate(s), where a misstep could cost the election. If Trump behaves himself and sticks to the key issues (immigration and the economy) he is positioned to win the debates and possibly the election. The pressure on Harris is to show she can go toe to toe with Trump and is in command of not only broad themes but policy, without getting lost in the weeds.

Trump has struggled to get his line and length on Harris. He is still mourning the loss of Joe Biden. He went through a similar grieving process in 2020 when Covid-19 derailed his election campaign. Trump began 2020 confident that the strong economy and incumbency would result in a comfortable reelection, but Covid completely changed the election landscape. He struggled to adjust his message, veering between Churchillian statesmanship and partisan brawling. He took over Vice President Pence’s daily briefings, which were rating highly, and made the election a referendum on himself.

Biden, meanwhile, kept to his basement and pounded out messages that highlighted Trump’s negatives. He detached enough non-college-educated white voters to swing the election. That was the calculation behind backing Biden in 2020. In this election, Biden became a handbrake on voter enthusiasm, so the Democrats cancelled him. Trump underestimated the ruthlessness of the Democrats and Biden’s party loyalty; he is above all an institutionalist, the quintessential insider.

Read also : The Potential Return of Donald Trump and Its Global Impact

Trump presents himself as the outsider, seeking to appeal to those let down by the cosy Washington insiders looking after themselves and Wall Street but not main street. Insiders are cosmopolitans and globalists; he is America First.

Trump is simultaneously courting the big end of town and the libertarians in Big Tech with promises of lower taxes and less regulation. Tech bros such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel also see themselves as outsiders, breaking through the business establishment and setting their own rules. Trump is OK with that if they fund him and provide support in the media.

A strong suit for Trump is the economy, which did well during his tenure, driven by tax cuts and a burgeoning deficit. Biden’s strong economy has been undermined by inflation stoked by supply side shortages and continued growth in government spending. Trump’s policy proposals for higher tariffs will add to costs as will the desire to artificially lower the dollar, impacting interest rates and undermining market confidence. The Republicans cannot agree on a plan to rein in the fiscal deficit, with defence spending set to go


Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man


higher and Trump having promised tax cuts all round and ruled out cuts to Medicare and social security.

Trump’s other strong suit is immigration, which has surged in the last four years. His attacks on immigration are also a proxy for how quickly America is changing in demography, and racial and ethnic complexion. This is linked to fears about safety and security in sections of the population. This was exemplified by a recent Trump ad that contrasted a traditional American house with a flag out the front, next to a hellscape of a neighbourhood overrun by dark-skinned immigrants and intruders. This is not a time for subtlety.

But Harris has transformed the race. She is proof that, above all, politicians are purveyors of hope. That was Michelle Obama’s message to the Democrat faithful: “The contagious power of hope.”

Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man.

She remains a policy chameleon, straddling the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats, and deftly distancing herself from some Biden-era policies including the self-described broken immigration system. She has junked inconvenient policy positions. She no longer supports single payer government-run healthcare, for example.

The Trump team is reprising previous policy positions to define her as a far-left candidate. This may stick if Harris is unable to define herself, although the Trump/Vance team has shifted positions over time, too.

Democrat strategists are wary of tying her down with too many details – that is for after the election. Her positions now are meant to paint a picture of her as the anti-Trump while neutralising his populist themes. She matched his promise not to tax tips (important to hospitality workers in Nevada). Her major economic speech last week was a populist feast, dealing with inflation by going after price gouging by corporations and offering a housing grant program to the middle class (proxy for the aspirational working class).

If Trump continues to bait her by targeting personality rather than policy, she may just get away with policy lite.

We are about to see if hope trumps fear.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science

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Ethiopia Secures Over $1.7 Billion in Mineral and Energy Investment Deals, Largely from Chinese Firms

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Ethiopia has secured more than $1.7 billion in new investment commitments for its minerals and energy sectors, with the majority of the deals involving Chinese companies, according to the country’s Ministry of Finance.

The announcement comes as the East African nation continues to implement sweeping economic reforms. These include the planned flotation of its currency, the birr, and ongoing negotiations to restructure $8.4 billion of official debt. The reform agenda is also backed by a four-year, $3.4 billion support program signed with the International Monetary Fund in July last year.

In a statement issued late Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance said the agreements were signed during a two-day investment forum held in Addis Ababa, attracting both domestic and international investors.

Key deals include:

Hua Ye Mining Processing Company plans to invest $500 million in mineral exploration and processing, as well as in the development of a special economic zone dedicated to the mining sector.

Sequoia Mining & Processing Plc committed $600 million to develop coal mining projects across Ethiopia.

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology will invest $360 million to establish a solar cell manufacturing facility.

CSI Solar pledged an additional $250 million toward solar energy development initiatives.

While the ministry confirmed the total investment amount, it did not provide specific timelines for when the funds are expected to be disbursed or projects initiated.

These agreements underscore Ethiopia’s efforts to attract foreign capital to revitalize its economy and modernize its energy and industrial sectors.

 

 

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Assessing the Impact of President Trump’s Tariff Policies

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The tariff policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump have caused significant disruptions in global markets, leaving many businesses uncertain about how to plan for the future. Despite repeated announcements and adjustments, the overall effectiveness of these policies remains ambiguous.

From the outset of his second term, Trump aggressively pursued tariffs as a tool for trade and security leverage. Within days of taking office, he imposed 25% tariffs on most Mexican and Canadian imports, alongside a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

The justification was twofold: curbing the flow of fentanyl and reducing undocumented immigration. However, these tariffs were soon suspended for Canada and Mexico—albeit temporarily—for 30 days in exchange for concessions related to border security and law enforcement. China, however, remained under the initial tariff burden.

In the months that followed, Trump escalated his trade war: he reinstated and raised tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, imposed 25% duties on steel, aluminum, and automotive imports, and doubled tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl concerns to 20%.

The administration’s approach remained erratic. Tariffs on car imports from North American neighbors were introduced, suspended, and then replaced with a sweeping 25% tariff on all global car imports.

In April, Trump introduced a “reciprocal” tariff regime, applying a 10% baseline tariff on all countries. This announcement triggered turmoil in financial markets, prompting a temporary 90-day pause—though the 10% tax remained. A more punitive 145% tariff on Chinese imports was enacted, prompting a retaliatory 125% tariff on American goods from Beijing.

Some relief followed, as the U.S. began rolling back tariffs in line with new trade agreements. A limited deal with the United Kingdom reduced the U.S. tariff on British auto imports from 27.5% to 10%, frustrating domestic automakers who now faced increased competition.

A more significant development came with the temporary truce between the U.S. and China. Both nations agreed to a 90-day pause and partial rollback, with U.S. tariffs lowered to 30% and China’s to 10%, while negotiations continued.

Even before this agreement, exceptions had been quietly made for high-demand technology products such as smartphones and computers—most of which are imported from China. The deal also reduced duties on low-value Chinese imports (valued under $800), cutting the tariff from 120% to 54%.

These low-value goods, previously exempt from import duties, were criticized for being channels for cheap goods and, allegedly, for drug trafficking—one of the original rationales for imposing tariffs.

Despite these tariff reductions, uncertainty continues to plague businesses, especially small enterprises. Such businesses, which employ nearly half of the U.S. workforce and contribute 43.5% of the country’s GDP, are especially vulnerable due to their limited resources to absorb rising costs and market instability.

This economic ambiguity is contributing to broader concerns. A Bloomberg poll cited a nearly 50% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year. Consumer confidence has plunged to a 13-year low, and inflation is projected to rise mid-year—despite a modest annual inflation rate of 2.3% in April.

Retailers are already feeling the pressure. Walmart, the largest importer of container goods into the U.S. (many from China), warned that it would need to raise prices by month’s end due to persistent tariff costs—even after recent reductions.

Trump himself acknowledged potential consumer impacts, remarking that American children might “have two dolls instead of 30,” with the remaining toys costing slightly more.

While some corporations, including Apple, have announced multi-billion-dollar investment plans in the U.S., analysts note that many of these figures include prior commitments. Thus, these announcements may reflect more about financial forecasting than actual job creation.

Overall, the Trump administration’s tariff policy has been marked by unpredictability, market volatility, and limited clarity on long-term strategy. Although some trade agreements have been reached and select investments announced, the broader economic and geopolitical gains remain uncertain.

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Tinubu, Obi Meet at Pope’s Inaugural Mass

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In a surprising display of cordiality, President Bola Tinubu and his erstwhile political rival, Peter Obi, were spotted laughing and joking at Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural mass in Rome.

The two politicians, who locked horns in the heated 2023 presidential election, exchanged pleasantries and showcased a rare moment of bonhomie.

According to presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, Obi and former Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi greeted Tinubu at the event, with Fayemi welcoming the President to “our church.”

Tinubu, however, playfully responded that he should be the one welcoming them as the head of the Nigerian delegation, prompting laughter from Obi.

The lighthearted encounter has been hailed as a positive development for Nigeria’s politics, with some observers hoping it could help reduce tension between supporters of both men.

“They portrayed a good image of the country, and that’s how politics should be played – without bitterness,” said Alkassim Hussain, a member of Nigeria’s House of Representatives.

The meeting comes amid speculation that Tinubu, Obi, and other key players might face off again in the 2027 elections.

Some analysts believe the Labour Party and Peoples Democratic Party could form a coalition to challenge Tinubu, who is expected to seek a second term.

Despite the potential for another intense electoral battle, the Pope’s inaugural mass provided a rare moment of levity and camaraderie between two of Nigeria’s prominent politicians.

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