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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

As Kamala Harris Enters The US Election Danger Zone, We Are About To See If Hope Trumps Fear

BY ARTHUR SINODINOS


As an Australian onlooker, the pageantry of American politics – party conventions in particular – can seem like a spectacle compared with the austerity of Australian elections.

But after the DNC celebrations in Chicago wind down, the Democratic party is facing the hard reality of a serious fight ahead of November’s presidential election.

At this stage of the campaign, it’s better to be in Kamala Harris’ shoes than Donald Trump’s. But she has some work to do yet and is maybe a couple of points off a genuine lead.

She is now entering the danger zone. The home stretch traditionally kicks off on Labor Day on the first Monday in September, when everyone returns to work. Most voters are locked into their choice by now but must be motivated to stay engaged and cast their vote. Ballot papers will start going out soon in some states.

The few undecideds now start to focus on the campaign. By this stage, candidates should have honed their messages down to a few key points that they will repeat ad nauseam until election day. By the end of it, the candidates will have very little fuel left in the tank.

The major events to come are the debate(s), where a misstep could cost the election. If Trump behaves himself and sticks to the key issues (immigration and the economy) he is positioned to win the debates and possibly the election. The pressure on Harris is to show she can go toe to toe with Trump and is in command of not only broad themes but policy, without getting lost in the weeds.

Trump has struggled to get his line and length on Harris. He is still mourning the loss of Joe Biden. He went through a similar grieving process in 2020 when Covid-19 derailed his election campaign. Trump began 2020 confident that the strong economy and incumbency would result in a comfortable reelection, but Covid completely changed the election landscape. He struggled to adjust his message, veering between Churchillian statesmanship and partisan brawling. He took over Vice President Pence’s daily briefings, which were rating highly, and made the election a referendum on himself.

Biden, meanwhile, kept to his basement and pounded out messages that highlighted Trump’s negatives. He detached enough non-college-educated white voters to swing the election. That was the calculation behind backing Biden in 2020. In this election, Biden became a handbrake on voter enthusiasm, so the Democrats cancelled him. Trump underestimated the ruthlessness of the Democrats and Biden’s party loyalty; he is above all an institutionalist, the quintessential insider.

Read also : The Potential Return of Donald Trump and Its Global Impact

Trump presents himself as the outsider, seeking to appeal to those let down by the cosy Washington insiders looking after themselves and Wall Street but not main street. Insiders are cosmopolitans and globalists; he is America First.

Trump is simultaneously courting the big end of town and the libertarians in Big Tech with promises of lower taxes and less regulation. Tech bros such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel also see themselves as outsiders, breaking through the business establishment and setting their own rules. Trump is OK with that if they fund him and provide support in the media.

A strong suit for Trump is the economy, which did well during his tenure, driven by tax cuts and a burgeoning deficit. Biden’s strong economy has been undermined by inflation stoked by supply side shortages and continued growth in government spending. Trump’s policy proposals for higher tariffs will add to costs as will the desire to artificially lower the dollar, impacting interest rates and undermining market confidence. The Republicans cannot agree on a plan to rein in the fiscal deficit, with defence spending set to go


Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man


higher and Trump having promised tax cuts all round and ruled out cuts to Medicare and social security.

Trump’s other strong suit is immigration, which has surged in the last four years. His attacks on immigration are also a proxy for how quickly America is changing in demography, and racial and ethnic complexion. This is linked to fears about safety and security in sections of the population. This was exemplified by a recent Trump ad that contrasted a traditional American house with a flag out the front, next to a hellscape of a neighbourhood overrun by dark-skinned immigrants and intruders. This is not a time for subtlety.

But Harris has transformed the race. She is proof that, above all, politicians are purveyors of hope. That was Michelle Obama’s message to the Democrat faithful: “The contagious power of hope.”

Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man.

She remains a policy chameleon, straddling the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats, and deftly distancing herself from some Biden-era policies including the self-described broken immigration system. She has junked inconvenient policy positions. She no longer supports single payer government-run healthcare, for example.

The Trump team is reprising previous policy positions to define her as a far-left candidate. This may stick if Harris is unable to define herself, although the Trump/Vance team has shifted positions over time, too.

Democrat strategists are wary of tying her down with too many details – that is for after the election. Her positions now are meant to paint a picture of her as the anti-Trump while neutralising his populist themes. She matched his promise not to tax tips (important to hospitality workers in Nevada). Her major economic speech last week was a populist feast, dealing with inflation by going after price gouging by corporations and offering a housing grant program to the middle class (proxy for the aspirational working class).

If Trump continues to bait her by targeting personality rather than policy, she may just get away with policy lite.

We are about to see if hope trumps fear.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science

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US Threatens New Tariffs on UK, EU, China, 57 Others

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Trump Requests Postponement Of Sentencing In Hush Money Case Until After Presidential Election

US Threatens New Tariffs on UK, EU, China, 57 Others

 

The United States has announced plans to impose fresh tariffs of between 10 and 12.5 per cent on imports from dozens of countries over concerns that they have failed to do enough to curb the trade in goods produced through forced labour.

 

The move marks the second major tariff initiative by the administration of President Donald Trump since the US Supreme Court struck down a significant portion of his earlier import duties in February.

 

According to the US Trade Department, the proposed tariffs would affect 60 trading partners that collectively account for almost all goods imported into the United States.

 

The department said the measures were aimed at countries that have either failed to prohibit the importation of goods made with forced labour or have not effectively enforced existing restrictions.

 

Announcing the proposal, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the continued trade in goods linked to forced labour created unfair competition for American workers.

 

“It creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field,” Greer stated.

 

The proposed tariffs have yet to take effect, as the Trump administration is expected to complete the necessary legal and regulatory processes before implementation.

 

The action follows an investigation launched in March by Greer into whether major US trading partners had taken adequate measures to prevent the importation of products made wholly or partly through forced labour.

 

Findings from the investigation indicated that 54 countries had “failed to impose a legal prohibition on the importation of goods produced wholly or in part with forced labour and to effectively enforce such a prohibition.”

 

The report further stated that six trading partners — the European Union, Canada, Ecuador, Indonesia, Mexico and Pakistan — had failed to effectively enforce existing bans on imports linked to forced labour.

 

Under the proposal, a 10 per cent tariff would be imposed on imports from countries and blocs including the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Guatemala, Malaysia and Taiwan.

 

The remaining 45 countries, including China and India, would face higher duties of 12.5 per cent.

 

Reacting to the announcement, the British government maintained that it was taking steps to address forced labour concerns within supply chains, while China rejected allegations that goods produced through forced labour were entering global markets.

 

The European Union, however, described the proposed tariffs as unjustified.

 

An Indian trade analyst characterised the move as a pressure tactic aimed at strengthening Washington’s position in ongoing trade negotiations with New Delhi.

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Israeli Airstrikes Hit Beirut, Kill Two Despite Fragile Ceasefire

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Israeli Airstrikes Hit Beirut, Kill Two Despite Fragile Ceasefire

 

Israel on Sunday launched airstrikes on southern Beirut, marking the first attack on the Lebanese capital since a ceasefire brokered by the United States last week, as tensions between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran continued to escalate.

 

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said two people were killed and at least 20 others injured, including women and children, after Israeli warplanes struck two apartment buildings in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahieh, a stronghold of the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement.

 

The strikes came amid renewed hostilities following a wave of missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel on Sunday night, which Tehran said was retaliation for increasing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the attacks, saying the targets were Hezbollah facilities operating within the Lebanese capital.

 

“We struck terrorist headquarters in the Dahieh district of Beirut in response to Hezbollah’s firing at Israeli territory,” Netanyahu said.

 

The latest bombardment shattered the lower floors of a residential building, leaving apartments exposed and scattering debris, concrete and twisted metal across nearby streets.

 

Videos circulating on social media showed residents and emergency responders rushing to the scene to rescue victims trapped beneath the rubble.

 

Health officials in Lebanon confirmed that four women and four children were among those injured in the attack.

 

An Arabic-language statement issued by an Israeli military spokesman on X indicated that the operation could continue, describing the targeted sites as Hezbollah military infrastructure.

 

“To be continued,” the spokesman wrote.

 

The Israeli military also announced that it intercepted two projectiles fired from Lebanon into Israeli territory earlier on Sunday.

 

Hezbollah later claimed responsibility for rocket attacks targeting Israeli artillery positions at Yiftah Barracks and troops stationed near al-Marj Pond.

 

The group said the attacks were carried out in response to what it described as repeated Israeli violations of the ceasefire and continued assaults on villages in southern Lebanon.

 

Reacting to the Beirut strikes, Iranian lawmaker and foreign policy committee spokesman Ebrahim Rezaie warned that Israel would face consequences.

 

He said Iran would deliver a “decisive and painful response” to the attack.

 

The renewed violence threatens a fragile truce reached on June 3 after intense diplomatic efforts led by Washington and supported by Qatar.

 

Prior to the ceasefire, Israel had threatened a major offensive in Dahieh, prompting thousands of residents to flee the area and triggering urgent diplomatic interventions aimed at preventing a wider regional conflict.

 

United States President Donald Trump had previously announced that there would be “no troops going to Beirut” following discussions with Netanyahu, while Washington reportedly urged Israel to exercise restraint.

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Iran Launches Fresh Missile Barrage on Israel, Vows “Full Week of Continuous Strikes”

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Iran Launches Fresh Missile Barrage on Israel, Vows “Full Week of Continuous Strikes”

 

Iran has fired multiple waves of missiles towards northern Israel in a sharp escalation of regional tensions, with Tehran warning that the attacks mark “the beginning of a full week of continuous strikes.”

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the operation would continue in waves, signalling a prolonged confrontation as fears grow of a wider Middle East conflict.

 

However, most of the incoming missiles were reportedly intercepted by Israel’s air defence systems, with authorities later allowing residents to leave shelters. No immediate casualties were reported.

 

The Israeli military said it is prepared for a forceful response, with its chief of staff warning that the country would “strike the enemy with determination as soon as the order is given.”

 

A military spokesman also described Iran’s action as a “grave mistake,” amid mounting pressure on Israel’s leadership to respond decisively.

 

The latest exchange follows earlier Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked targets in southern Beirut, a move that further inflamed regional tensions and raised expectations of retaliation from Iran and its allies.

 

The developments have intensified concerns over the widening scope of the conflict across multiple fronts in the Middle East.

 

According to reports from Fox News, United States President Donald Trump urged Iran to de-escalate, saying: “That’s enough. Get back to the table.”

 

He was also quoted as expressing displeasure over Israel’s strikes in Beirut, telling the network he was “not happy” about the escalation.

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