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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

As Kamala Harris Enters The US Election Danger Zone, We Are About To See If Hope Trumps Fear

BY ARTHUR SINODINOS


As an Australian onlooker, the pageantry of American politics – party conventions in particular – can seem like a spectacle compared with the austerity of Australian elections.

But after the DNC celebrations in Chicago wind down, the Democratic party is facing the hard reality of a serious fight ahead of November’s presidential election.

At this stage of the campaign, it’s better to be in Kamala Harris’ shoes than Donald Trump’s. But she has some work to do yet and is maybe a couple of points off a genuine lead.

She is now entering the danger zone. The home stretch traditionally kicks off on Labor Day on the first Monday in September, when everyone returns to work. Most voters are locked into their choice by now but must be motivated to stay engaged and cast their vote. Ballot papers will start going out soon in some states.

The few undecideds now start to focus on the campaign. By this stage, candidates should have honed their messages down to a few key points that they will repeat ad nauseam until election day. By the end of it, the candidates will have very little fuel left in the tank.

The major events to come are the debate(s), where a misstep could cost the election. If Trump behaves himself and sticks to the key issues (immigration and the economy) he is positioned to win the debates and possibly the election. The pressure on Harris is to show she can go toe to toe with Trump and is in command of not only broad themes but policy, without getting lost in the weeds.

Trump has struggled to get his line and length on Harris. He is still mourning the loss of Joe Biden. He went through a similar grieving process in 2020 when Covid-19 derailed his election campaign. Trump began 2020 confident that the strong economy and incumbency would result in a comfortable reelection, but Covid completely changed the election landscape. He struggled to adjust his message, veering between Churchillian statesmanship and partisan brawling. He took over Vice President Pence’s daily briefings, which were rating highly, and made the election a referendum on himself.

Biden, meanwhile, kept to his basement and pounded out messages that highlighted Trump’s negatives. He detached enough non-college-educated white voters to swing the election. That was the calculation behind backing Biden in 2020. In this election, Biden became a handbrake on voter enthusiasm, so the Democrats cancelled him. Trump underestimated the ruthlessness of the Democrats and Biden’s party loyalty; he is above all an institutionalist, the quintessential insider.

Read also : The Potential Return of Donald Trump and Its Global Impact

Trump presents himself as the outsider, seeking to appeal to those let down by the cosy Washington insiders looking after themselves and Wall Street but not main street. Insiders are cosmopolitans and globalists; he is America First.

Trump is simultaneously courting the big end of town and the libertarians in Big Tech with promises of lower taxes and less regulation. Tech bros such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel also see themselves as outsiders, breaking through the business establishment and setting their own rules. Trump is OK with that if they fund him and provide support in the media.

A strong suit for Trump is the economy, which did well during his tenure, driven by tax cuts and a burgeoning deficit. Biden’s strong economy has been undermined by inflation stoked by supply side shortages and continued growth in government spending. Trump’s policy proposals for higher tariffs will add to costs as will the desire to artificially lower the dollar, impacting interest rates and undermining market confidence. The Republicans cannot agree on a plan to rein in the fiscal deficit, with defence spending set to go


Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man


higher and Trump having promised tax cuts all round and ruled out cuts to Medicare and social security.

Trump’s other strong suit is immigration, which has surged in the last four years. His attacks on immigration are also a proxy for how quickly America is changing in demography, and racial and ethnic complexion. This is linked to fears about safety and security in sections of the population. This was exemplified by a recent Trump ad that contrasted a traditional American house with a flag out the front, next to a hellscape of a neighbourhood overrun by dark-skinned immigrants and intruders. This is not a time for subtlety.

But Harris has transformed the race. She is proof that, above all, politicians are purveyors of hope. That was Michelle Obama’s message to the Democrat faithful: “The contagious power of hope.”

Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man.

She remains a policy chameleon, straddling the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats, and deftly distancing herself from some Biden-era policies including the self-described broken immigration system. She has junked inconvenient policy positions. She no longer supports single payer government-run healthcare, for example.

The Trump team is reprising previous policy positions to define her as a far-left candidate. This may stick if Harris is unable to define herself, although the Trump/Vance team has shifted positions over time, too.

Democrat strategists are wary of tying her down with too many details – that is for after the election. Her positions now are meant to paint a picture of her as the anti-Trump while neutralising his populist themes. She matched his promise not to tax tips (important to hospitality workers in Nevada). Her major economic speech last week was a populist feast, dealing with inflation by going after price gouging by corporations and offering a housing grant program to the middle class (proxy for the aspirational working class).

If Trump continues to bait her by targeting personality rather than policy, she may just get away with policy lite.

We are about to see if hope trumps fear.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science

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Diaspora Watch – Vol. 90

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Diaspora Watch - Vol. 90

HOOORAY! IT’S 90TH EDITION OF DIASPORA WATCH NEWSPAPER

Diaspora Watch Newspaper announces the release of its landmark 90th edition, delivering a compelling mix of global politics, diaspora engagement, energy transition, innovation, and culture, carefully curated to inform and engage its diverse international readership.

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On Demand Print: https://www.magcloud.com/browse/issue/3316371?__r=1069759

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Leading this edition is the thought-provoking headline, “Is Trump’s Security Being Tested?”, which takes a critical look at evolving security concerns surrounding the United States President, Donald Trump, raising questions about political stability and institutional preparedness in a charged electoral climate.

In a major diaspora spotlight, the edition features “US-based Retired Veterans Honor Obi of Onitsha With U.S. County Key,” capturing a symbolic moment of cross-continental recognition and cultural diplomacy, as distinguished Nigerian traditional leadership receives accolades abroad.

Global climate diplomacy takes center stage in “60 Nations Meet in Colombia to Push Fossil Fuel Exit Amid COP Deadlock,” highlighting renewed international efforts to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels despite ongoing negotiations under the COP framework.

Africa’s industrial ambitions are further explored in “Dangote Plans 650,000bpd Refinery in East Africa, Seeks Regional Backing,” detailing strategic expansion moves poised to reshape the continent’s energy landscape and strengthen regional economic integration.

On the innovation front, “Japan Unveils First Commercial Hydrogen-Blended Gas Engine for Power Generation” underscores technological advancements aimed at reducing carbon emissions and advancing sustainable energy solutions globally.

The edition also examines developments within the United States defence establishment in “US Navy Secretary Phelan Sacked Amid Pentagon Rift,” shedding light on internal policy disagreements and their implications for military leadership.

Diplomatic and cultural discourse is captured in “Ruto’s ‘Nigerian English’ Remark Sparks Diplomatic-Style Social Media Backlash,” reflecting how language, identity, and public commentary intersect in today’s digital diplomacy landscape.

Health innovation across the Caribbean is explored in “AI, Genomics Offer Path to Transform Caribbean Health – CARICOM SG,” presenting emerging opportunities for data-driven healthcare transformation within the region.

On the back page, readers are treated to a cultural highlight with “Met Gala 2026: Beyoncé, Kidman, Others to Co-Host as Vogue Unveils Theme, Details,” offering insights into one of the world’s most anticipated fashion events and its global influence.

As Diaspora Watch Newspaper marks this significant milestone, the 90th edition reaffirms its commitment to delivering credible, insightful, and impactful journalism that bridges continents and amplifies diaspora voices.

Stay informed and ahead of the curve with the 90th edition of Diaspora Watch where we the complex dynamics shaping our world and provide insights into the stories that matter.

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Dangote Plans 650,000bpd Refinery in East Africa, Seeks Regional Backing

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Dangote Refinery To Disrupt Europe's Oil Industry, Says OPEC

Dangote Plans 650,000bpd Refinery in East Africa, Seeks Regional Backing

 

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans to establish a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in East Africa, in a move aimed at expanding his refining footprint beyond Nigeria and reducing the continent’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

 

Dangote made the disclosure on Thursday during a presidential panel at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi, organised by the Africa Finance Corporation, where he called for the support of East African governments to replicate the scale of his Lagos-based refinery.

 

He said his group was ready to deliver a similar project in the region if the necessary backing is provided.

 

“I can give commitment to the presidents here today that if they support the refinery, we will build the identical one that we have in Nigeria, a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery. The discussions are still early, but it will work. There is nothing that can stop it,” Dangote said.

 

The proposal comes amid ongoing discussions involving Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania to develop a joint refining hub in the port city of Tanga, which is expected to process crude oil from across the region, including supplies from the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan.

 

Dangote expressed confidence in the feasibility of the project, citing his experience in delivering the 650,000bpd refinery in Lagos, widely regarded as Africa’s largest.

 

He further revealed that expansion works had already commenced in Nigeria to scale up refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

 

“We have already started piling for the expansion. We are building it to a scale of 1.4 million barrels per day. It will be the largest refinery globally,” he said, adding that the development would account for about 10 per cent of the United States’ refining capacity alongside significant petrochemical output.

 

The billionaire industrialist stressed the need for Africa to prioritise industrial self-sufficiency, warning that reliance on imports exposes economies to global price shocks.

 

“Look at what is happening today. If not for the local production of polypropylene in Nigeria, many businesses would have collapsed. In just 45 days, the price jumped from about $900 per tonne to nearly $3,000 per tonne. That tells you why we must build local capacity,” he said.

 

Dangote noted that improved financial capacity across Africa now makes large-scale industrial projects more feasible, compared to previous years when funding constraints posed major challenges.

 

“There was a time in Nigeria when interest rates were as high as 44 per cent. We had to rely on international institutions to raise funds for early projects. Today, the landscape has changed significantly,” he added.

 

He also disclosed plans to open up ownership of the refinery business to African investors, promising dollar-denominated returns.

 

“We want all Africans to invest. This is a continental asset, and we will be paying dividends in dollars,” he said.

 

On project timelines, Dangote said the proposed East African refinery could be delivered within four to five years once agreements are finalised with participating governments.

 

“My commitment is that if we agree with three or four governments in the region, we will lead the process and ensure that the refinery is built within the next four or five years,” he stated.

 

Earlier, William Ruto confirmed that talks were ongoing with Dangote and regional stakeholders on establishing the refinery in Tanga.

 

Dangote also announced plans to establish about 20 fertiliser blending plants across Africa by 2028, further expanding his industrial investments on the continent.

 

Energy experts say the proposed refinery, if realised, could significantly reshape Africa’s fuel supply chain, reduce import dependence, and strengthen regional energy security.

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US-based Retired Veterans Honour Obi of Onitsha With U.S. County Key

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US-based Retired Veterans Honour Obi of Onitsha With U.S. County Key

 

There was a blend of tradition and quiet diplomacy in Onitsha, Anambra State, as two United States-based retired veterans, Chief Walter Chinedu Obi and Chief George Onyenyeonwu, visited the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Alfred Achebe CFR, mni at his palace.

 

The visit, which drew a select audience of dignitaries, reflected the growing engagement between Nigerians in the diaspora and traditional institutions at home, particularly at a time when cultural identity and global partnerships are gaining renewed attention.

 

Among those who accompanied the visitors were a U.S.-based legal practitioner, Barrister Iyke Nwachukwu, and a community leader, Ichie Jeff Ukpo, alongside other stakeholders with ties to both Nigeria and the diaspora.

 

The atmosphere combined elements of ceremony and purpose, as the delegation was received with customary honours in keeping with the stature of the Onitsha monarch.

 

A major highlight of the visit was the presentation of the Prince George’s County Key to the monarch, a rare symbolic gesture signifying honour and recognition.

 

The key was presented on behalf of Aisha Braveboy, the County Executive of Prince George’s County, Maryland, United States, in what was described as a landmark moment in diaspora-traditional relations.

 

Speaking during the ceremony, members of the delegation emphasised that the honour was not only a recognition of the monarch’s leadership but also a reflection of the enduring cultural ties between Africa and its diaspora.

 

They stressed the importance of forging stronger partnerships between traditional rulers and diaspora communities, particularly in the areas of cultural preservation, youth development, and economic cooperation.

 

According to them, traditional institutions remain central to grassroots development and can serve as vital conduits for international collaboration and investment.

 

In his remarks, Igwe Nnaemeka Alfred Achebe CFR, mni expressed appreciation to the delegation and the government of Prince George’s County for the recognition.

 

The monarch noted that the gesture symbolises a renewed commitment to unity among Nigerians across borders and reaffirmed the importance of sustaining cultural identity.

 

He further called on Nigerians in the diaspora to remain actively engaged in national development, adding that their exposure and resources are critical to the country’s progress.

 

The visit is expected to strengthen ongoing conversations around diaspora inclusion, while also reinforcing the role of traditional leadership in advancing Nigeria’s global cultural and diplomatic footprint.

 

Reported by Boniface Ihiasota

Washington, DC Correspondent

Diaspora Watch Newspaper

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