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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?
As Kamala Harris Enters The US Election Danger Zone, We Are About To See If Hope Trumps Fear
BY ARTHUR SINODINOS
As an Australian onlooker, the pageantry of American politics – party conventions in particular – can seem like a spectacle compared with the austerity of Australian elections.
But after the DNC celebrations in Chicago wind down, the Democratic party is facing the hard reality of a serious fight ahead of November’s presidential election.
At this stage of the campaign, it’s better to be in Kamala Harris’ shoes than Donald Trump’s. But she has some work to do yet and is maybe a couple of points off a genuine lead.
She is now entering the danger zone. The home stretch traditionally kicks off on Labor Day on the first Monday in September, when everyone returns to work. Most voters are locked into their choice by now but must be motivated to stay engaged and cast their vote. Ballot papers will start going out soon in some states.
The few undecideds now start to focus on the campaign. By this stage, candidates should have honed their messages down to a few key points that they will repeat ad nauseam until election day. By the end of it, the candidates will have very little fuel left in the tank.
The major events to come are the debate(s), where a misstep could cost the election. If Trump behaves himself and sticks to the key issues (immigration and the economy) he is positioned to win the debates and possibly the election. The pressure on Harris is to show she can go toe to toe with Trump and is in command of not only broad themes but policy, without getting lost in the weeds.
Trump has struggled to get his line and length on Harris. He is still mourning the loss of Joe Biden. He went through a similar grieving process in 2020 when Covid-19 derailed his election campaign. Trump began 2020 confident that the strong economy and incumbency would result in a comfortable reelection, but Covid completely changed the election landscape. He struggled to adjust his message, veering between Churchillian statesmanship and partisan brawling. He took over Vice President Pence’s daily briefings, which were rating highly, and made the election a referendum on himself.
Biden, meanwhile, kept to his basement and pounded out messages that highlighted Trump’s negatives. He detached enough non-college-educated white voters to swing the election. That was the calculation behind backing Biden in 2020. In this election, Biden became a handbrake on voter enthusiasm, so the Democrats cancelled him. Trump underestimated the ruthlessness of the Democrats and Biden’s party loyalty; he is above all an institutionalist, the quintessential insider.
Read also : The Potential Return of Donald Trump and Its Global Impact
Trump presents himself as the outsider, seeking to appeal to those let down by the cosy Washington insiders looking after themselves and Wall Street but not main street. Insiders are cosmopolitans and globalists; he is America First.
Trump is simultaneously courting the big end of town and the libertarians in Big Tech with promises of lower taxes and less regulation. Tech bros such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel also see themselves as outsiders, breaking through the business establishment and setting their own rules. Trump is OK with that if they fund him and provide support in the media.
A strong suit for Trump is the economy, which did well during his tenure, driven by tax cuts and a burgeoning deficit. Biden’s strong economy has been undermined by inflation stoked by supply side shortages and continued growth in government spending. Trump’s policy proposals for higher tariffs will add to costs as will the desire to artificially lower the dollar, impacting interest rates and undermining market confidence. The Republicans cannot agree on a plan to rein in the fiscal deficit, with defence spending set to go
Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man
higher and Trump having promised tax cuts all round and ruled out cuts to Medicare and social security.
Trump’s other strong suit is immigration, which has surged in the last four years. His attacks on immigration are also a proxy for how quickly America is changing in demography, and racial and ethnic complexion. This is linked to fears about safety and security in sections of the population. This was exemplified by a recent Trump ad that contrasted a traditional American house with a flag out the front, next to a hellscape of a neighbourhood overrun by dark-skinned immigrants and intruders. This is not a time for subtlety.
But Harris has transformed the race. She is proof that, above all, politicians are purveyors of hope. That was Michelle Obama’s message to the Democrat faithful: “The contagious power of hope.”
Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man.
She remains a policy chameleon, straddling the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats, and deftly distancing herself from some Biden-era policies including the self-described broken immigration system. She has junked inconvenient policy positions. She no longer supports single payer government-run healthcare, for example.
The Trump team is reprising previous policy positions to define her as a far-left candidate. This may stick if Harris is unable to define herself, although the Trump/Vance team has shifted positions over time, too.
Democrat strategists are wary of tying her down with too many details – that is for after the election. Her positions now are meant to paint a picture of her as the anti-Trump while neutralising his populist themes. She matched his promise not to tax tips (important to hospitality workers in Nevada). Her major economic speech last week was a populist feast, dealing with inflation by going after price gouging by corporations and offering a housing grant program to the middle class (proxy for the aspirational working class).
If Trump continues to bait her by targeting personality rather than policy, she may just get away with policy lite.
We are about to see if hope trumps fear.
Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science
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The edition also brings readers up to speed on major international developments, including US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an Intel-Apple chip deal, Ghana’s move towards a local takeover of Gold Fields’ Tarkwa mine, CARICOM’s renewed commitment to improving citizens’ lives under incoming Chair Pierre, the possibility of cocoa prices rising above $10,000 per tonne once again, a comprehensive 14-Point Roadmap to De-escalation and Reconstruction, Singapore’s impressive 38.4 per cent growth in non-oil exports driven by artificial intelligence, and warnings from Kew scientists that AI and digitalization could play a crucial role in preventing global plant extinction.
On the back page, readers will find the inspiring story of Adenugba, who has been honored with the African Diaspora Fashion Platform Award, recognizing excellence, creativity and outstanding contributions to fashion within the global African diaspora community.
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SpaceX to join Nasdaq-100 index July 7
SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7, following confirmation by exchange operator Nasdaq, a move expected to trigger a surge in passive investment into the aerospace and artificial intelligence company.
The inclusion means exchange-traded funds and other investment vehicles that track the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index will be required to purchase SpaceX shares, a development that typically boosts demand and supports a company’s stock price.
SpaceX, founded by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, made its Nasdaq debut on June 12 and has experienced volatile financial performance in recent years, alternating between periods of losses and modest profits.
The company reported a net loss of $4.9bn in its most recent financial year, underscoring the challenges it continues to face despite strong investor interest in its space technology and artificial intelligence businesses.
The company’s addition to the index comes after Nasdaq, alongside other major index providers including FTSE Russell and MSCI, eased some of its listing eligibility requirements in an effort to attract more companies seeking to list on U.S. exchanges.
The revised criteria include changes to profitability requirements, the waiting period after a company’s initial public offering and the number of publicly traded shares required for inclusion in certain indices.
Meanwhile, S&P Global has maintained a more cautious approach.
The index provider said earlier this month that it would not alter its eligibility requirements for SpaceX to join its flagship indices, including the benchmark S&P 500.
According to S&P Global, the company will not be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500 until it has been publicly listed for at least 12 months.
The development comes as other leading artificial intelligence firms, including OpenAI and Anthropic, are widely expected to pursue initial public offerings either later this year or in 2027, with analysts projecting valuations exceeding $1tn.
Uzodimma Backs FLAC, Urges Nigerians to Unite Against Cancer
Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to supporting the First Ladies Against Cancer, FLAC Nigeria, while calling on Nigerians to join efforts to combat cancer through increased awareness, early detection and sustained advocacy.
The governor made the pledge during a courtesy visit by members of FLAC and later at a gala night organised in their honour at the Government House in Owerri.
Speaking at the event, Uzodimma commended the organisation for its humanitarian interventions and contributions to improving cancer prevention, treatment and care across the country.
“I am excited to host you in Imo State and I commend your humanitarian services in Nigeria,” the governor said, assuring the delegation of his administration’s continued support for the organisation’s programmes.
He described Imo as the hospitality capital of the South-East and welcomed the delegates on behalf of the state government and people, assuring them of their safety during their stay.
The event also featured emotional testimonies from cancer survivors, including men, women and children, who recounted their experiences with the disease while encouraging Nigerians to embrace early screening and treatment.
Addressing guests at the gala night, Uzodimma stressed that the fight against cancer requires collective action, public education and efforts to eliminate the stigma associated with the disease.
He also lauded the President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government for its investments in cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care, urging Nigerians to support ongoing reforms in the health sector.
“We need a new Nigeria where everyone participates in nation-building,” the governor said, adding that early detection remains critical to improving survival rates among cancer patients.
Earlier, the Chairperson of FLAC Nigeria and wife of the Imo State Governor, Mrs Chioma Uzodimma, said the delegation visited to appreciate the governor for his consistent support for the organisation’s advocacy and activities.
She explained that FLAC, whose membership comprises serving and former first ladies across the country, marks Cancer Survivors Month every June to celebrate survivors, inspire hope and raise awareness about the disease.
She described the governor as “a special friend of FLAC” and presented him with an award on behalf of the organisation in recognition of his support for its mission.
The gala night featured musical performances, a fashion parade by cancer survivors, comedy, cake cutting, presentation of gifts to survivors and a fundraising session to support the organisation’s advocacy programmes.
Mrs Uzodimma disclosed that more than N100m was raised during the fundraising to support FLAC’s ongoing cancer awareness and advocacy initiatives.
The delegation included the wives of the governors of Adamawa, Zamfara and Ogun states, Hajia Lami Fintiri, Hajia Huriyya Lawal and Mrs Bamidele Abiodun; immediate past FLAC Chairperson, Dr Zainab Shinkafi-Bagudu; former First Lady of Niger State, Dr Amina Abubakar; and former First Lady of Oyo State and ambassador-designate, Dr Florence Ajumobi, among other dignitaries.
Diaspora Watch – Vol. 98
CARICOM celebrates women in diplomacy, hosts young female honorary diplomats
The Politics of Akara and Kuli-Kuli Empowerment, by Boniface Ihiasota
Pastor Jerry Eze Defends Miracles At UK Conference Amidst Criticism And Controversy
Diaspora Watch 20th Edition (October 14-20, 2024): Your Trusted Source for Global News and Insights
