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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

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As Kamala Harris Faces Political Turmoil, Will Hope Prevail Over Fear In The US Election?

As Kamala Harris Enters The US Election Danger Zone, We Are About To See If Hope Trumps Fear

BY ARTHUR SINODINOS


As an Australian onlooker, the pageantry of American politics – party conventions in particular – can seem like a spectacle compared with the austerity of Australian elections.

But after the DNC celebrations in Chicago wind down, the Democratic party is facing the hard reality of a serious fight ahead of November’s presidential election.

At this stage of the campaign, it’s better to be in Kamala Harris’ shoes than Donald Trump’s. But she has some work to do yet and is maybe a couple of points off a genuine lead.

She is now entering the danger zone. The home stretch traditionally kicks off on Labor Day on the first Monday in September, when everyone returns to work. Most voters are locked into their choice by now but must be motivated to stay engaged and cast their vote. Ballot papers will start going out soon in some states.

The few undecideds now start to focus on the campaign. By this stage, candidates should have honed their messages down to a few key points that they will repeat ad nauseam until election day. By the end of it, the candidates will have very little fuel left in the tank.

The major events to come are the debate(s), where a misstep could cost the election. If Trump behaves himself and sticks to the key issues (immigration and the economy) he is positioned to win the debates and possibly the election. The pressure on Harris is to show she can go toe to toe with Trump and is in command of not only broad themes but policy, without getting lost in the weeds.

Trump has struggled to get his line and length on Harris. He is still mourning the loss of Joe Biden. He went through a similar grieving process in 2020 when Covid-19 derailed his election campaign. Trump began 2020 confident that the strong economy and incumbency would result in a comfortable reelection, but Covid completely changed the election landscape. He struggled to adjust his message, veering between Churchillian statesmanship and partisan brawling. He took over Vice President Pence’s daily briefings, which were rating highly, and made the election a referendum on himself.

Biden, meanwhile, kept to his basement and pounded out messages that highlighted Trump’s negatives. He detached enough non-college-educated white voters to swing the election. That was the calculation behind backing Biden in 2020. In this election, Biden became a handbrake on voter enthusiasm, so the Democrats cancelled him. Trump underestimated the ruthlessness of the Democrats and Biden’s party loyalty; he is above all an institutionalist, the quintessential insider.

Read also : The Potential Return of Donald Trump and Its Global Impact

Trump presents himself as the outsider, seeking to appeal to those let down by the cosy Washington insiders looking after themselves and Wall Street but not main street. Insiders are cosmopolitans and globalists; he is America First.

Trump is simultaneously courting the big end of town and the libertarians in Big Tech with promises of lower taxes and less regulation. Tech bros such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel also see themselves as outsiders, breaking through the business establishment and setting their own rules. Trump is OK with that if they fund him and provide support in the media.

A strong suit for Trump is the economy, which did well during his tenure, driven by tax cuts and a burgeoning deficit. Biden’s strong economy has been undermined by inflation stoked by supply side shortages and continued growth in government spending. Trump’s policy proposals for higher tariffs will add to costs as will the desire to artificially lower the dollar, impacting interest rates and undermining market confidence. The Republicans cannot agree on a plan to rein in the fiscal deficit, with defence spending set to go


Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man


higher and Trump having promised tax cuts all round and ruled out cuts to Medicare and social security.

Trump’s other strong suit is immigration, which has surged in the last four years. His attacks on immigration are also a proxy for how quickly America is changing in demography, and racial and ethnic complexion. This is linked to fears about safety and security in sections of the population. This was exemplified by a recent Trump ad that contrasted a traditional American house with a flag out the front, next to a hellscape of a neighbourhood overrun by dark-skinned immigrants and intruders. This is not a time for subtlety.

But Harris has transformed the race. She is proof that, above all, politicians are purveyors of hope. That was Michelle Obama’s message to the Democrat faithful: “The contagious power of hope.”

Harris is turning the Republican mantra of freedom on its head – freedom over your own body if you are a woman, freedom from gun violence and the freedom to get ahead. She has reenergised young people and women generally. She is leaning into the changing face of America, positioning Trump as yesterday’s man.

She remains a policy chameleon, straddling the divide between moderate and progressive Democrats, and deftly distancing herself from some Biden-era policies including the self-described broken immigration system. She has junked inconvenient policy positions. She no longer supports single payer government-run healthcare, for example.

The Trump team is reprising previous policy positions to define her as a far-left candidate. This may stick if Harris is unable to define herself, although the Trump/Vance team has shifted positions over time, too.

Democrat strategists are wary of tying her down with too many details – that is for after the election. Her positions now are meant to paint a picture of her as the anti-Trump while neutralising his populist themes. She matched his promise not to tax tips (important to hospitality workers in Nevada). Her major economic speech last week was a populist feast, dealing with inflation by going after price gouging by corporations and offering a housing grant program to the middle class (proxy for the aspirational working class).

If Trump continues to bait her by targeting personality rather than policy, she may just get away with policy lite.

We are about to see if hope trumps fear.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science

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CARICOM assesses regional capacity to produce four key products

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CARICOM assesses regional capacity to produce four key products

 

The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has set up four assessment teams to determine whether member states can meet regional demand for paints, hydraulic cement, glass bottles and bitumen.

 

The teams will meet between October 12 and 27 to examine production capacity, market demand and the competitiveness of regional products against imports from outside the Caribbean.

 

Their findings are expected to guide regional trade ministers in determining future tariff policies for the four products.

 

The teams were established by the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) at its 62nd regular meeting in June 2026.

 

The Assistant Secretary-General of CARICOM Single Market and Trade, Ambassador Wayne McCook, said the teams had been directed to conduct thorough assessments while considering the interests of manufacturers, consumers and other stakeholders.

 

“The Council has directed the assessment teams to be rigorous in examining the regional supply and demand for products and give careful consideration to the sensitivities of all stakeholders and consumers who rely on a stable and predictable supply of the products being assessed,” McCook said.

 

The assessments will examine the competitiveness of trade among CARICOM member states compared with imports from other regions, including the impact of the Common External Tariff, non-tariff barriers and logistics costs.

 

The teams will also review the application of CARICOM’s Rules of Origin criteria to the products and seek contributions from public and private sector stakeholders, consumers and civil society groups.

 

The petroleum bitumen assessment team comprises representatives from Barbados, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago.

 

The team examining other hydraulic cement comprises Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

 

The glass bottles team includes Barbados, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago.

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Trump Rules Out Iran Deal as US Weighs Fresh Military Strikes

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Trump Rules Out Iran Deal as US Weighs Fresh Military Strikes

 

United States President Donald Trump has said he no longer wants a deal with Iran amid reports that the US military is preparing for possible fresh strikes against the country in the coming weeks.

 

Trump made the statement during a campaign rally with Republican candidates in San Antonio, Texas, suggesting that Tehran was willing to make major concessions to end the conflict.

 

“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop,” Trump said.

 

He, however, commended his special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, for his role in the ongoing diplomatic efforts, saying the envoy was “doing very well.”

 

The development came as NBC News reported that Trump and his national security team had discussed the possibility of resuming large-scale military operations against Iran in the coming weeks.

 

The report, citing a US official and another person familiar with the discussions, indicated that Washington was considering further military action despite ongoing efforts to end the conflict.

 

Similarly, Axios reported that a possible resumption of hostilities could involve extensive bombing of Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear targets.

 

The reports also raised concerns about the potential political implications of renewed military operations ahead of the US midterm elections.

 

Trump’s approval ratings have reportedly declined amid mounting public concerns over the rising cost of living, particularly soaring petrol and diesel prices.

 

Earlier in the week, the president blamed uncertainty over Iran’s leadership for difficulties in the negotiations, arguing that Washington did not know who was making decisions on behalf of Tehran.

 

Iranian officials rejected the claim, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei accusing US officials of sending contradictory signals.

 

Baghaei argued that the problem stemmed from what he described as Washington’s inconsistent positions and mixed messages during the negotiations.

 

Meanwhile, crude oil prices have remained elevated despite a recovery in oil exports from the Middle East towards levels recorded before the conflict.

 

According to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, combined crude oil shipments from the Gulf, excluding Iran, alongside volumes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, had recovered to approximately 18.5 million barrels per day.

 

Kpler’s lead freight analyst, Matt Wright, said the normalisation of oil shipments no longer depended entirely on a diplomatic agreement.

 

“Normalisation no longer needs to wait for a deal,” Wright said.

 

He, however, forecast a slower and uneven recovery if the conflict continued, suggesting that shipping operations would increasingly adapt to prevailing conditions rather than wait for a diplomatic breakthrough.

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Trump’s fuel price cuts face hurdles ahead of midterm elections

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Trump Congratulates UK’s Farage, Ignores Starmer

Trump’s fuel price cuts face hurdles ahead of midterm elections

 

United States President Donald Trump is facing mounting pressure to reduce petrol and diesel prices ahead of the November midterm elections, as rising energy costs continue to weigh on households and businesses.

 

Trump has announced several measures aimed at easing the burden on consumers, including temporary tax relief on red-dyed diesel used for off-road purposes and efforts to encourage the release of oil reserves.

 

However, analysts say the measures may offer only limited relief, with the disruption of global energy supplies caused by the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran continuing to drive up prices.

 

The rising cost of fuel has become a major political concern for the Trump administration, with voters increasingly worried about the cost of transportation, food and other essential goods.

 

Polls indicate widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy and the war in Iran, putting Republican candidates under pressure ahead of the November elections.

 

Global oil supplies have been disrupted by the conflict, which has severely affected the movement of crude oil and refined petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Although crude oil flows have approached pre-war levels, prices remain above $100 per barrel, contributing to higher petrol and diesel costs.

 

David Ruisard, pricing manager at commodities intelligence firm Argus, attributed the increase in diesel prices to the Middle East conflict and Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine.

 

He estimated that about 60 per cent of the increase in diesel prices from approximately $3 to $6 per gallon was connected to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict accounted for the remaining 40 per cent.

 

Oxford Economics’ chief US economist, Michael Pearce, said higher energy costs had contributed significantly to inflation this year, putting additional pressure on households and businesses.

 

He explained that rising energy prices and interest rates were squeezing household budgets while increasing operating costs for businesses.

 

However, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel price tracking website GasBuddy, said petrol and diesel prices had recorded modest declines in recent days, partly due to measures introduced by the Trump administration.

 

One of the measures announced by Trump allows red-dyed diesel, which is normally reserved for off-road use and is exempt from federal highway fuel taxes, to be used on public roads without the usual federal levies during the temporary relief period.

 

Ruisard, however, warned that the measure could create complications for trucking companies once the relief expires.

 

He explained that the red dye was difficult to remove from fuel tanks and that businesses found using the dyed fuel after the exemption ended could face substantial penalties for tax evasion.

 

He also warned that increased consumption could deplete supplies normally reserved for agricultural machinery, rail operators and other off-road users.

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